THE DAILY

Monday, June 15, 2026

The five minutes that makes you the most informed person in freight today

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The Daily

Routing guides crumble as carriers push for double-digit rate increases

Carriers are rewriting the terms, and shippers who thought their 2026 contracts were settled are finding out otherwise.

Routing guides built during the early-year bid season are failing at an accelerated pace. Mini-bid activity has surged, and some shippers have been forced to reprice their entire freight book — contracts set just a few months ago are no longer being honored. Spencer Frazier, head of sales and marketing at J.B. Hunt Transport Services (NASDAQ: JBHT), told investors at the Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference in Chicago last week that the collapse is happening fast. "The only reason that happens is because routing guides, once implemented, start to crumble," Frazier said. "They’re falling apart. And that’s what has happened at an accelerated pace … from March through today."

The driver is regulatory enforcement that has structurally altered the supply side in ways past freight cycles haven’t. Heightened enforcement began purging noncompliant drivers from the market last fall, with spot rates stepping higher around Thanksgiving when the first supply compression became visible. More recently, strict policing of cabotage rules and the Supreme Court’s Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II ruling — which widened broker liability for negligent driver hiring — have tightened the supply side further. "It is different this time," Frazier said, calling the shift structural, not transitory. High equipment costs, safety-driven insurance increases, and fuel prices are keeping new entrants away, which means the usual gold-rush cycle that oversupplied the market in previous recoveries isn’t coming.

Jim Filter, group president of transportation and logistics at Schneider National (NYSE: SNDR), put the carrier universe math in stark terms. "Based on our experience, there aren’t 50,000 carriers in this country that you could vet and say that they’re safe," Filter said. That runs directly against the 100,000-plus third-party-carrier lists brokers were touting a few years ago. The cheapest option on the load board hasn’t just gotten expensive — under Montgomery, it’s increasingly a legal liability for shippers and brokers who can’t document compliance.

The rate recovery math is steep. Carriers entered 2026 targeting low-to-mid single-digit increases. They’re now calling for mid-to-high single-digit, with some shippers already absorbing double-digit hikes. J.B. Hunt publicly flagged a cumulative 20% rate increase over the next two years at an investor conference last month. Schneider said Q1 contract renewals were at their highest level since 2021. Werner Enterprises (NASDAQ: WERN) views the Montgomery ruling as a "net benefit" for its brokerage unit — shippers are actively aligning with asset-backed brokers that can guarantee trucks and driver compliance, rather than relying on the spot market’s long carrier lists.

One variable remains unresolved. Virtually every truckload recovery in recent history has been demand-led, not supply-led, and this one is still supply-driven. Housing and auto remain drags on industrial activity. The data center boom has helped spur some demand, but the next move on interest rates may be up, not down. Demand hasn’t surged. Whether the upcycle sustains depends on whether volume eventually catches up to the supply-side story carriers are telling investors.

So What? Shippers still pricing off early-2026 bid benchmarks are going to feel this before they see it coming. Carriers pushing mid-to-high single-digit increases are restoring margins after years of absorbed cost inflation. Budget for double-digit increases on at least a portion of your book in the back half of 2026. The compliance floor has moved up permanently, and routing guide failures are only going to accelerate.

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Top Stories

U.S.-Iran peace deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz, but shipping recovery is months away

The United States and Iran reached agreement to end the war in the Arabian Gulf and lift restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s crude oil supply flows. A memorandum of understanding set for signing June 19 would suspend sanctions on Iranian oil, release $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets, and give both countries 60 days to negotiate a permanent settlement covering Tehran’s nuclear program. The U.S. will lift its blockade of the strait within 30 days. The conflict also throttled fertilizer and chemical shipments, pushing bunker prices sharply higher ahead of peak shipping season and prompting President Trump to temporarily suspend the Jones Act for foreign ships carrying gas and fertilizer between Gulf Coast producers and northeast markets.

So What? A ceasefire is not a supply chain. Analyst Lars Jensen put it directly: "A full return to pre-crisis normality will likely take two to three months" — vessel rotations need to be realigned, thousands of mines need to be cleared, and empty containers need to reposition. Rate normalization will lag the announcement. Plan for the disruption, not the headline.

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July 4 holiday raises cargo theft risk as organized groups target idle freight

The July 4 extended holiday doesn’t create new supply chain vulnerabilities — it exposes the ones that already exist. Verisk CargoNet identified the July 1-7 window as one of the most active cargo theft periods of the year, with warehouses, distribution centers, truck stops, and unattended trailers as the most frequently targeted locations when operations wind down. According to analysis from security professionals, reduced staffing, longer trailer dwell times, and delayed shipment movement have historically given organized theft groups favorable operating conditions. Most organizations still focus on recovery after a theft occurs rather than identifying gaps before losses happen, which means the detection delay compounds the damage.

So What? If high-value freight is sitting in your yard over the extended weekend, your security protocols need to be active. Confirm trailer seal numbers before shutdown, increase yard check frequency, and keep an escalation contact staffed — not just available Monday morning when losses get discovered.

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Ag shippers warn Chinese vessel fees could eliminate margins on U.S. crop exports

Democratic senators Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) are pressing the Trump administration to reinstate port fees on Chinese cargo vessels, and agricultural exporters say the stakes are existential. The Agriculture Transportation Coalition called the USTR proposals "ill-conceived" and said they "threaten the very existence of large segments of U.S. agriculture, by denying them the ability to continue to export." The fees — implemented earlier this year after a USTR investigation found China leveraged unfair advantages to dominate the maritime sector — were suspended until November after China applied reciprocal charges on U.S. shipping lines. A March study by Trade Partnership Worldwide, signed by 277 trade associations, detailed the full economic impact in a letter to the administration and Congress.

So What? November is the date that matters. If the suspension lapses, shippers moving grain, soybeans, and bulk commodities face sharply higher export costs that could price U.S. crops out of competitive international markets. Agricultural supply chains that don’t have contingency plans in place before that deadline will be scrambling to adapt.

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Sponsored By Trimble

Q2 2026 Freight Brokerage Rate Report FreightWaves’ Freight Brokerage Rate Report — sponsored by Truckstop.com — reviews the previous quarter’s pricing trends and forecasts what’s ahead for brokers. With routing guides crumbling and spot rates moving in carriers’ favor, the rate intelligence in this report is the benchmark you want before your next bid negotiation. Download the report →

Volvo Autonomous Solutions to begin driverless truck operations in Q1 2027

Volvo Autonomous Solutions plans to remove safety drivers and begin fully driverless operations on U.S. highways in Q1 2027, targeting more than 300 autonomous trucks by year-end 2027 and projecting revenue approaching $3 billion from the autonomous business within five years. The company currently operates commercially in Texas on routes between Dallas and Houston, Fort Worth and El Paso, and — most recently — Dallas to Oklahoma City, a lane that drives directly into customer facilities and eliminates the drayage segment that earlier hub-to-hub operations required. Aurora Innovation, Volvo’s technology partner, confirmed the driverless timeline: "In Q1 2027, we’ll deploy those trucks with nobody behind the wheel in Texas."

So What? The Q1 2027 target is six months away. Fleet operators and shippers who haven’t started conversations are already behind the engagement curve. The economic case is direct: driverless operations double asset utilization by eliminating hours-of-service constraints. Engage now, start small, and get ahead of the integration requirements before the question is no longer optional.

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FreightWaves Today is brought to you by Samsara

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Special thanks to our sponsors: Highway, Love’s, OTR Solutions, Pallet, Premier Trailer Leasing, RXO and SONAR

Today’s Guests

• Doug Marcello — Shareholder/Attorney, Saxton & Stump, LLC
• Jordan Graft — Founder & CEO, Highway
• Brad Jacobs — Chairman & CEO, QXO
• Alex Guirguis — Co-Founder & CEO, Off The Record

FreightWaves Today is LIVE at 12PM ET at tv.freightwaves.com/today and streamed on LinkedIn, FB and X.

From Our Library

From Our Partners

What We’re Watching

▸ Strait of Hormuz mine clearance. The June 19 MOU signing starts the 30-day clock on the U.S. blockade lift, but the real timeline for normalizing Persian Gulf shipping is two to three months. Watch vessel positioning data and bunker fuel prices for the first signs of genuine rate normalization.

▸ Q3 mini-bid season. With routing guides failing and carriers targeting a cumulative 20% rate increase over two years, shippers heading into summer freight planning need updated benchmarks — not the early-2026 projections that no longer reflect the market. Start Q3 bids from current rates.

▸ July 4 cargo security window. July 1-7 is statistically one of the year’s highest-risk cargo theft periods. Flag high-value loads now, confirm yard security protocols are active through the extended weekend, and keep an escalation contact reachable — not just on Monday morning when losses surface.

That’s your Daily for today. See you tomorrow.

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