The Daily

The five minutes that makes you the most informed person in freight today.

Lead Story · Ocean

Xeneta forecasts 30% drop in container spot rates in 2027

By Stuart Chirls

Shippers who paid crisis-level ocean freight all year may finally get a break. Xeneta forecasts global container spot rates will fall 30% in 2027 and long-term contract rates 5%, comparing full-year 2027 averages with third-quarter 2026 levels.

The decline starts from a high base. Asia-U.S. West Coast spot rates in October ran 343% above their Feb. 28 level, set just before the Middle East crisis began, and sat only 14% below the pandemic-era record. Singapore high-sulfur bunker prices have climbed 107% since late February, pushing average fuel surcharges on long-term contracts across four major Asia trades up 42% to $820 per FEU.

Supply drives the forecast. Xeneta expects the fleet to grow 6.8% next year, with 2.9 million TEUs delivered against about 500,000 scrapped, while demand grows 2.5% to 4%. Shorter Red Sea and Suez routings have already freed 599,000 TEUs of nominal capacity this year. Demand, meanwhile, was pulled forward: Asia-U.S. volumes rose 11% in August against 1.9% real retail sales growth, and Xeneta expects inventory drawdowns to slow early 2027 and soften peak season.

For shippers heading into contract talks, that is leverage, not a guaranteed discount. China now ships six laden boxes out for every one it imports, up from 3.3 in 2019, an imbalance that can hold fronthaul prices up while the global average falls. Jebel Ali’s weekly capacity is down to 9,000 TEUs from 423,000, El Niño threatens Panama Canal water levels early next year, and on-time arrivals ran at just 27% in the third quarter. The savings will be won or lost in fuel-surcharge and routing clauses.

Brad Jacobs puts $1 billion into CKX Lands to launch new rollup

The XPO founder and QXO CEO said Monday that his family office, Jacobs Private Equity, will invest $900 million and HRTG Partners $100 million in CKX Lands, a NYSE American-listed company with oil, gas and timber assets and a market cap of about $21 million. Jacobs becomes chairman and CEO. The deal mirrors his 2023 SilverSun investment that became QXO, but the target industry is unnamed. “The industry for my new venture is still to be determined,” Jacobs told analysts.

Read more →

Sponsored · Quantix

Carriers’ RICO suit against C.H. Robinson, TQL heads toward 2028 trial

A proposed schedule in Stevens Trucking et al. v. C.H. Robinson et al. in the Eastern District of Texas sets jury selection before Judge Rodney Gilstrap for April 3, 2028, with mediation ending in late January 2028. Dates aren’t final until a Nov. 23 scheduling conference. Last week the six carriers opposed TQL’s bid to move the case to an Ohio state court under its carrier contracts. C.H. Robinson hasn’t filed anything and says it isn’t connected to TQL’s motion.

Read more →

LA-Long Beach port watchmen extend strike deadline to Nov. 20

The Pacific Maritime Association and ILWU Local 26 pushed back the deadline again as they bargain over a contract for about 250 security watchmen, whose last agreement expired in July 2025. The union set an initial Nov. 1 strike deadline, then moved it to Nov. 4 and Nov. 6. Federal mediators are assisting. The watchmen’s contract is separate from the coastwide deal covering more than 22,000 longshore workers, which runs to July 2028.

Read more →

Highway ties 40% of third-quarter stolen loads to compromised communications

Highway’s Q3 Freight Fraud Index logged 184 stolen-load reports in its network, down 28.1% from the second quarter but up 8.2% from a year ago. Compromised communications, including hijacked carrier email accounts, figured in 40.2% of them. Carrier ownership change reports jumped 111.4% from the prior quarter, and carriers stealing loads they legitimately accepted rose to 36.4% of reports from 31.3%.

Read more →

Brought to you by Samsara. Built with operators, for operators. Blind spots cause some of fleets’ costliest, most complex collisions. Learn how AI-powered 360-degree visibility helps you spot risks in real time and protect drivers, pedestrians, and cyclists. Download the Guide.

Thanks to our sponsors: Highway · Love’s · OTR Solutions · Pallet · Premier Trailer Leasing · RXO · Trinity Rail · Motorcity Systems · Descartes · Saia · Centerline · 123LoadBoard · PACCAR · Lean Solutions Group · SmartKargo · SONAR

In partnership with CargoWise Landside

What it takes to win in the next era of drayage

A FreightWaves survey of drayage operators on the challenges limiting growth, where they’re investing in automation and why digital tools are becoming essential to scale without adding cost.

Download the report →

In partnership with Werner

High-stakes freight brokerage: risk and accountability

Shippers of high-value and mission-critical freight on compliance failures, visibility gaps and carrier performance, and why accountability now tops their list.

Download the report →

In partnership with Infios

Tariffs didn’t raise costs. They raised the execution standard.

Infios research on how the 2025 tariff environment made transport mode a tariff decision and turned tariff exposure from a fixed cost into a managed variable.

Download the report →

That’s your Daily. See you tomorrow.

Have a tip? Reply to this email.

Subscribe to FreightWaves newsletters
Forward to a friend · Unsubscribe

FreightWaves · 405 Cherry St., Chattanooga, TN 37402