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In an unexpected move that caught much of the freight world flat-footed, Sean Duffy — Trump’s pick to lead the Department of Transportation — has now been reassigned to serve as interim administrator of NASA. The announcement dropped this week, with Trump praising Duffy’s efforts in modernizing air traffic control and rebuilding infrastructure, before launching him straight into orbit, quite literally.

And while Duffy might be thrilled to take on a new “mission,” the question back here on Earth is louder than ever:

So who’s steering the ship for trucking now?

Let’s be real — love him or not, Duffy’s short stint at DOT brought energy. He was visible, loud, and unafraid to shake the table. He emphasized hardline takes on infrastructure, attempted to streamline regulations, and made public gestures toward supporting blue-collar industries. But for small carriers, a lot of it felt more like posturing than policy. The FMCSA still sat with glaring gaps. Safety enforcement stayed inconsistent. ELD and carrier fraud concerns never made it out of committee talks.

Now, just as the industry is demanding stronger oversight, better fraud detection, and more protection for small carriers, we’re looking at yet another transition at DOT — and no clear roadmap for what’s next.

Here’s why this matters:

• The FMCSA still has no permanent administrator. Carriers are still reeling from enforcement inconsistencies, and now their top advocate at DOT is being moved elsewhere.
• Small carriers are bearing the brunt of regulatory confusion. From the HOS interpretation issues to the explosion of double-brokering scams, the people most exposed are the ones getting the least protection.
• DOT initiatives like infrastructure spending and carrier vetting reforms now risk getting stalled or reprioritized.

There’s also concern over timing. This shake-up comes in the middle of peak season prep, as volumes start to tick upward and owner-ops are making decisions about equipment, routes, and fuel strategy heading into Q3. Losing leadership continuity now — even temporarily — leaves a lot of folks wondering if real trucking reform is once again being kicked down the road.

So what now?

For small carriers and fleet owners, the move is a reminder that your success can’t depend on Washington to sort itself out. The blueprint for survival and growth is going to have to come from inside the industry, not from the top down. But it also means advocacy has to get louder. Because if leadership changes keep stealing attention from real problems — safety, fraud, and profitability — the people at the bottom of the freight food chain will keep paying the price.

Whether the next appointee is temporary or permanent, small fleets need someone in that seat who understands the difference between a compliance memo and a real-world truck payment.

Because out here, it’s not about launching into space.

It’s about keeping the wheels turning on the ground.

(Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves. Tariffs aren’t just policy—they’re pressure. Proposed import penalties on China, Mexico, and beyond could choke critical freight volumes across ports, borders, and manufacturing lanes in early 2025. For small carriers, the freight won’t wait. The question is—will you be ready when it shifts?)

If you thought tariffs were just a political soundbite, think again. Trump’s latest playbook is reshaping the trade conversation—and with it, freight volumes tied to cross-border, port, and import-heavy lanes are at serious risk of drying up in 2025.

The headlines say “tariffs,” but what carriers should be hearing is volume volatility. Here’s the breakdown of what’s coming—and why you can’t afford to ignore it.

Tariff Targets Are Growing

This isn’t just about China anymore. Trump’s proposed tariff expansion includes:

• A 60%+ tariff on Chinese imports, up from 25% in many categories
• New threats against Mexico over immigration disputes
• A push to punish the Philippines and Brazil for what’s being called unfair trade practices
• Fresh copper tariffs, which will ripple through U.S. manufacturing, electronics, and construction materials
• A proposed 10% baseline tariff on all imports into the U.S.—even from allies

This is shaping up to be the most aggressive trade stance in modern U.S. history. And for freight? That means uncertainty, rerouting, and reduced shipment volume across key sectors.

The Volume Fallout Is Real

Tariffs don’t just raise prices—they shrink freight in some cases until balance equals.

When importers get hit with higher costs, they sometimes scale back shipments to control inventory and ride out the storm. Retailers delay restocks. Manufacturers shift sourcing—or shut down domestic lines. And freight dries up.

• Cross-border volume from Mexico and Canada becomes more volatile, especially along Laredo and Detroit corridors
• Port volumes—especially West Coast and Gulf ports—could fall sharply if Chinese and Southeast Asian goods become cost-prohibitive
• Drayage and intermodal will slow first, but over-the-road trucking gets hit when final-mile distribution shrinks
• Raw materials like copper and aluminum, vital to U.S. manufacturing, may see price spikes and demand dips that cut into industrial freight

It’s a domino effect—and small carriers are often the last to feel it, but the hardest hit when it lands.

For Small Carriers, This Isn’t Background Noise

This isn’t political theater. It’s a freight forecast.

Every time a new tariff headline hits, shippers start shifting behavior—consolidating loads, rerouting freight, and leaning on mega fleets to absorb the risk. That leaves independent carriers scrambling for a shrinking piece of the pie, especially those that haven’t diversified their book or lanes.

And while the bigger carriers may weather volatility through long-term contracts or hedged fuel strategies, smaller fleets and owner-operators ride the spot market—and that’s where the pain shows up first.

What Should You Do Now?

Start treating tariff news like weather alerts. You don’t have to understand global economics—but you do need to understand how they affect freight volume.

• Watch port and customs activity. Declines in inbound TEUs mean fewer opportunities weeks down the line.
• Talk to your brokers. Ask what import-sensitive customers are doing with their freight—this is where rumors become leads.
• Expand your routing playbook. If you’re heavy on Mexico, the ports, or Southeast Asian retail freight, start testing dry domestic lanes now.
• Keep a closer eye on commodities. Construction freight, copper-heavy freight, and appliance loads could see volatility next.

Bottom Line

Tariffs don’t just change price tags—they change truck volumes. If this next round of trade policy unfolds the way it’s been outlined, Q1 of 2025 could bring sharp drops in the very lanes small carriers depend on.

This isn’t about politics—it’s about planning. Because if the freight gets hit, it won’t matter who’s in office. It’ll matter who was ready.

(Source: SONAR Spot Rate Changes Over Last 4 Days (Van TRAC Map). Rate momentum is real, but it’s not everywhere. This heatmap shows regional volatility—blue zones saw above-average spot rate gains, red zones saw declines. Use this as your routing cheat sheet.)

Last week’s fireworks may be over, but the freight market is still lighting up with signals you shouldn’t ignore. Post-holiday patterns are starting to emerge, and while nothing’s breaking the ceiling just yet, there’s movement—real movement—that tells us we’re entering the back half of the year with different energy than Q2.

Rates are pushing upward. Diesel is cooling (slightly). Authorities are thinning out again. But volumes? Still soft. And that contrast is where the real opportunity—and risk—sits.

While the national NTI sits steady at $2.38/mile, the above map tells you where that strength is actually showing up. Over the past four days, spot rate pressure has surged in key zones across the Midwest, Central Plains, and parts of the Southwest and Mid-South. That means rates are gaining steam there—and if you’re in those areas, it’s time to start pushing back harder on weak offers.

But on the flip side, the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and parts of the West Coast are showing signs of softening. Outbound lanes from places like Georgia, South Carolina, and Southern California are seeing pullbacks. That’s where your rate discipline needs to be highest.

This isn’t just a pretty map—it’s a strategic overlay. Think of it as a “rate risk” guide. You want to land in blue zones and leave from red ones only if the math makes sense. Pair this with diesel prices, OTRI, and volume data, and you’ll know where your truck should be pointed next, not just now.

If you’re trying to beat margin compression in this market, this is how you stay one step ahead—by playing both geography and timing, not just the load board.

Let’s break it down chart by chart so you can move sharper this week.

(Chart: SONAR National Truckload Index (NTI.USA). Spot market rates continue to climb post-holiday, holding strong at $2.38/mile. This is the highest we’ve seen since March—proof that capacity tightening is doing its job, even if volume isn’t. Your rate floor just got firmer.)

Spot Rates Hold Gains – NTI at $2.38/mile

The NTI ticked up again to $2.38 per mile, matching its highest point since late February. That’s a strong post-holiday hold, especially coming off a traditionally slow first week of July. While rates aren’t running away, they’re showing surprising resilience.

What’s driving it? Carrier exits and tighter post-holiday capacity are helping firm up spot market rates, even as volume stays flat. If you’re on the board this week, this number is your benchmark—but it’s not your ceiling. Know your cost, price your lanes to your margins, and watch regional hot spots where the floor is shifting higher.

(Chart: SONAR Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI.USA). Rejections dipped to 6.66% this week, showing brokers aren’t sweating yet—but the game is still shifting. Look for regional pressure points to play offense while others wait.)

Rejections Dip – OTRI Slides to 6.66%

After a solid post-holiday jump, tender rejections backed off slightly to 6.66%. That’s not alarming—but it does show that last week’s mini squeeze didn’t flip the script. Contract freight is still being covered, and most brokers aren’t feeling real pressure—yet.

Still, anything over 6% means there’s wiggle room. If you’re seeing repeated rejection spikes in specific markets (Midwest and Southeast in particular), that’s your signal to move aggressively and hold your line when bidding.

(Chart: SONAR Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI.USA). Freight volumes are still dragging, down to 8,835 and well below peak season norms. The pie is smaller, so every slice takes more strategy.)

Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) – Volumes Still Flat – OTVI at 8,835

The Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) dropped again this week—down to 8,835—marking one of the sharpest post-holiday dips we’ve seen all year. That’s a steep fall from last week’s 10,451, and it puts us well below the 10,000 threshold that signals baseline strength in the contract freight market.

Let’s break that down: this isn’t just a soft week. It’s a stark reminder that freight volumes are still volatile—and small carriers living off the load boards can’t afford to misread what this kind of dip means.

When volume drops by more than 1,600 index points in a single week, it sends a ripple effect through the entire freight ecosystem. That means:

• Brokers have less freight to move.

• More carriers are chasing fewer loads.

• The bidding wars get nastier.

• Margins get tighter.

If you’re running spot and relying on daily booking, this kind of environment puts you at a disadvantage unless you’re being highly intentional with your market selection. The mistake many carriers make is chasing what looks like freight activity without watching the quality of that freight or how competitive the region has suddenly become.

Don’t just ask: “Are there loads?” Ask:

• “How many other trucks are calling on them?”
• “Is this broker under pressure or just window shopping?”
• “Is this volume translating to actual movement—or is it stale demand from the holiday hangover?”

The move now? Pair volume data with rejection rates. If a market’s got lower volume but climbing rejections, it means brokers are struggling to cover those loads. That’s where the leverage is. If volume’s low and rejections are falling, you’re walking into a bloodbath—high competition, low rate power.

This week is a test. A test of your planning, your lane awareness, and your cost control. Because right now, there’s freight—but not enough to keep everyone fed. Those who move strategically will survive the squeeze. The rest? They’ll be chasing leftovers in a market that’s got no time for guesswork.

(Chart: SONAR Carrier Details Net Changes In Trucking Authorities (CDNCA.USA). Only 58 net new authorities last week—a sharp drop from the recent surge. This is your reminder that fewer trucks entering the market means more leverage for the ones still grinding it out.)

Authority Gains Slow Down – Net Increase of 58

We saw just 58 net new authorities last week—a massive drop from the prior week’s spike of over 200. This is a key signal: the post-tax-season bump in new entrants last week is cooling, and the rebalancing of capacity continues.

What it means for you: if you’re still standing, the landscape is slowly tilting in your favor—but only if you’re running smart. A thinning carrier base can firm up rates, but not if you’re burning profit to chase freight in oversaturated lanes. Lean into this trend and use it to your advantage when negotiating with brokers.

The Real Talk

This week isn’t about hope or hype — it’s about awareness.

You’re looking at a market with subtle shifts, not seismic ones. Rates are climbing — barely. Volume is stable — for now. Diesel is unpredictable — again. The only thing that’s consistent? The need to stay data-driven and dialed-in.

This week proves that there’s still opportunity for the carriers who can stay disciplined, read market patterns, and price their lanes with intention. That means understanding what rejections tell you about leverage, knowing when volume dips are just noise, and factoring fuel into every single move.

If you’re still operating with guesswork, you’re driving blind. But if you’re reading this, chances are you’re the kind of carrier who’s sharpening the playbook every single week.

Let’s keep doing what others aren’t — thinking ahead, planning smart, and staying in control.

This market may not be booming, but the smart ones are still winning. Stay sharp.

(Photo: Truck Parking Club. As truck parking options dwindle, private platforms like Truck Parking Club are stepping in—but at a cost. With CAT Scale now investing, the industry is watching closely to see if this is the start of real solutions or just another expense for drivers already stretched thin.)

If you’ve ever ended a long shift low on hours, short on options, and circling for a safe spot to park, you already know the parking crisis isn’t just “inconvenient”—it’s dangerous, expensive, and downright exhausting. And now, a new move in the industry’s ongoing scramble to solve the problem is raising eyebrows again.

Truck Parking Club, a platform that helps drivers reserve parking ahead of time through an Airbnb-style system, just secured a strategic investment from CAT Scale, the nation’s largest network of truck weigh stations. The idea? Combine CAT Scale’s deep footprint in trucking infrastructure with Truck Parking Club’s growing list of parking hosts to expand options for drivers nationwide.

Sounds promising on paper. But here’s where it gets complicated.

For many small carriers and owner-operators, the phrase “strategic investment” sounds less like innovation and more like “another thing we’ll be forced to pay for.” And that concern isn’t unfounded. The rise of paid truck parking has become one of the most controversial topics in the industry—and for good reason.

Let’s talk facts:

• The U.S. has roughly one legal truck parking space for every 11 trucks on the road. That gap hasn’t budged much in years.

• FMCSA regulations require drivers to shut down after a certain number of hours—but provide no help for where to go.

• Many states have closed rest areas or failed to expand public parking, pushing drivers into unsafe or unauthorized locations.

• Private parking providers often charge $15–$40 a night, with little to no amenities, inconsistent security, and often zero reservation guarantee.

Now enter tech platforms like Truck Parking Club. Their model allows landowners—truck stops, hotels, warehouses, even individuals—to list spare parking space for drivers to reserve and pay for. And while this has helped expand access in certain tight markets, it’s also fueling the debate: Should drivers have to pay to comply with federal rest mandates?

CAT Scale’s involvement could bring scale (no pun intended), credibility, and integrations that help drivers plan more efficiently. Imagine finishing your weigh-in and instantly being routed to a nearby spot you can lock in for the night. That’s convenience—something the market desperately needs.

But let’s not ignore what else it signals.

This partnership might be a business win, but it’s also a symptom of a system failing to fix the root issue. Instead of expanding public infrastructure, the private market is stepping in to monetize scarcity. That’s not innovation—it’s reaction. And while it may ease parking headaches in the short term, it raises long-term questions about who benefits—and who pays.

For small carriers running lean, every dollar matters. Add in rising diesel, insurance, and maintenance, and suddenly a $30 parking fee isn’t just a fee—it’s lost profit. If paid parking becomes the norm without a regulatory solution alongside it, the smallest players in the game will carry the biggest burden.

So what should you watch?

• How quickly these platforms scale and where new spots actually show up (urban vs. rural, high-traffic lanes vs. backhaul zones).
• Whether additional parking is being added vs. monetization of current. This has long been a discussion amongst owner operators as a point of frustration.
• Whether regulation catches up, because make no mistake: this is becoming a compliance issue, not just a convenience one.

The bottom line? More parking is good. Strategic partnerships can help. But until the core issue—lack of access to safe, free, and available parking—is addressed head-on, we’re not fixing the problem. We’re just shifting the cost.

After a week where rates nudged up, authorities rebounded, and trust across the supply chain stayed under fire—this week’s podcast tackles one of the most uncomfortable (but urgent) conversations in freight: the rising cost of fraud.

Adam sat down with Dale Prax, U.S. Marine Corps veteran and founder of FreightValidate, to cut through the noise and talk plainly about why fraud isn’t just a broker problem anymore—it’s everyone’s problem. With decades in the trenches as a carrier, broker, and tech innovator, Dale brings a perspective most folks haven’t heard—but need to.

In this episode, Dale breaks down how the industry’s soft enforcement, patchwork regulations, and outdated verification systems are letting bad actors run wild. He explains the difference between risk prediction and proof of identity, why FMCSA safeguards aren’t enough, and how even shippers are now part of the fraud prevention equation.

If you’ve ever had a load double-brokered, a truck ghost you on a delivery, or a payout delayed due to identity theft, this is the episode you can’t afford to skip. Dale lays out what real validation should look like, what red flags brokers and carriers should stop ignoring, and how small fleets can protect themselves from the most common schemes running today.

Because the longer we wait for a fix, the more freight gets stolen, delayed, or rerouted in the shadows. Dale’s mission is simple: bring daylight to the dark corners of freight fraud—and build a system that works for those who play by the rules.

It’s not just about compliance—it’s about credibility. Listen now and learn how to tighten your guardrails before fraud hits home.

(Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves. The loudest voices in freight shouldn’t be the only ones heard. Amplify by Playbook was built to spotlight the unsung heroes behind the scenes — the service providers who show up, stand out, and keep small carriers rolling. Now, with the launch of the Playbook Community, that spotlight just got brighter and the conversation just got real.)

The freight world isn’t short on loud voices. But it is short on the right ones getting heard. That’s why Amplify by Playbook was created — to shine a national spotlight on the unsung businesses that keep small carriers rolling. We’re talking about the mobile mechanics who answer at midnight. The tire shops that don’t price-gouge during snowstorms. The factoring reps who actually take the time to explain. The dispatch services that truly act like partners. These businesses are the heartbeat behind every mile moved — and it’s time we recognized them like it.

Amplify isn’t just a pat on the back.

It’s a megaphone, a marketing boost, and a trust badge all rolled into one. FreightWaves is the largest media platform in the supply chain. Getting featured through Amplify means getting seen. But more importantly, it means getting appreciated by the exact people you serve: small carriers, owner-operators, and everyday freight pros trying to build something real in a chaotic industry.

We’ve already celebrated repair shops, compliance consultants, insurance pros, and dispatchers who go way above and beyond. But we’re not stopping there.

We need your help.

If you know a service provider who deserves to be seen, [nominate them for Amplify]. Don’t assume they’ll be noticed just because they’re good — that’s not how it works in this space. We shine the light. You aim it.

Introducing: The All-New Playbook Community — Free for Subscribers

And speaking of real conversations, we’re proud to launch the Playbook Community, a private online space built for you — the small fleet owner, the one-truck operator, the strategist, the do-it-all team lead. It’s where the data meets the day-to-day. Where market charts turn into rate plans. Where regulatory updates turn into dispatch decisions. And where the people in the trenches actually talk about what’s working.

This isn’t another Facebook group. It’s a curated, freight-first forum where the noise is low and the knowledge is high. You’ll get early access to market trends, compliance shifts, new tools, and exclusive discussions led by industry vets.

Best part? If you’re subscribed to this newsletter — you’re in.

No cost. No fluff. Just small carrier support.

Join the Playbook Community today and help us raise the standard across the board — from who gets recognized to how we move forward. Because small carriers don’t need more hype. They need real help, honest insight, and a community that sees them.

Let’s make the loudest noise in freight come from the ones who’ve earned it.

This week pulled back the curtain on a freight market that’s no longer confused — just constrained. The data says it plainly: volumes are soft, rates are sticky, and costs aren’t letting up. But what really stood out was what’s happening behind the freight — in policy, in labor, and in partnerships. From Sean Duffy’s exit at DOT to tariffs tightening trade flow and buyout schemes stirring tension at UPS, the message for small carriers is clear: the rules of the game are shifting, again.

But here’s the truth — freight’s always been about the long game. The ones who win aren’t the loudest or the biggest. They’re the ones who get ahead of what’s coming, not caught up in what’s trending.

So this week, don’t just look at the numbers — look at the patterns. If the government’s tightening enforcement, tighten your operation. If mega fleets are shaking up labor contracts, double down on your retention game. If rates won’t budge, adjust your expectations and your lane planning.

There’s no magic rebound coming. But there is a strategy. There’s execution. And there’s always a chance to make better decisions than you did last week.

The Playbook was built for weeks like this — not just to tell you what’s happening, but to help you decide what to do with it.

Let’s move sharper. Let’s operate smarter. Let’s lead better.

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