CEVA – Market Update-Happy Thanksgiving!!

• A large chemicals shipper increased asset-based exposure to mitigate rate spikes but has since negotiated lower contract rates as the TL market became competitive.
• Despite some regional tightness, tender acceptance rates remain high, with expectations of low-to mid-single-digit contract rate increases next year.
• LTL rates are projected to rise low-single digits, with carriers aiming for mid-single-digit increases while managing freight among carriers for cost efficiency.

• TL rates showed a modest increase of ~1% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, but remain significantly below the May 2022 peak.
• The outlook for 2026 indicates a potential increase of 0-2% in TL pricing, driven by abundant supply and cautious demand.
• Spot rates continue to lag behind contract rates, reflecting a challenging market environment with soft demand and cautious inventory management.

• The Port of Long Beach reports stable vessel activity, while a U.S. Appeals Court has temporarily halted a Department of Transportation rule affecting non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses.
• Schneider National’s Q3 operating income fell 18% year-over-year, attributed to market headwinds, although its truckload segment benefited from an acquisition.
• Overall freight shipments declined ~8% year-over-year, with LTL experiencing more significant drops due to weaker industrial markets. The Logistics Manager’s Index indicates ongoing expansion in transportation metrics despite challenges in inventories and warehousing.

• Two major uncertainties are expected to influence container shipping: potential U.S. inventory restocking and the return of Red Sea and Suez Canal transits.
• U.S. inventories are low, and a replenishment cycle could increase demand by over 4%.
• Limited Suez Canal transits have resumed under naval escort, but most carriers remain cautious. The period post-Lunar New Year is seen as a less disruptive time for a broader return to this route.

• China’s export-import imbalance is straining container capacity, leading to increased empty container moves and operational costs.
• The Port of Hamburg reported an 8.4% increase in container throughput, contrasting with declines at Rotterdam and Antwerp due to congestion and strikes.
• U.S. containerized imports in October 2025 were stable but 7.5% lower year-over-year, reflecting cautious importer behavior amid tariff changes and softer consumer demand

• Air cargo demand increased by 2.9% YoY in September, a slowdown from August’s 4.0%.
• International demand rose 3.2% YoY, with Africa leading at 14.7% and Asia-Pacific at 6.9%.
• Global cargo capacity grew by 3.0% YoY, with stable capacity utilization.
• Jet fuel prices rose 5.4% YoY, reversing a 14-month decline, while cargo yields softened, down 5.5% YoY but up 1.3% MoM.

• Asia-Pacific: Demand grew 6.8% YoY, marking a slowdown from previous months.
• Europe: Cargo demand increased 2.5% YoY, maintaining a moderate upward trend.
• Middle East: Demand decelerated to 0.6% YoY, influenced by regional advisories.
• North America: Experienced a 1.2% YoY decline, improving slightly from August.
• Latin America: First contraction since February, with a 2.2% YoY drop driven by weaker Europe–Latin America traffic.

• Brent crude prices fell 8.5% YoY, while jet fuel costs rose due to tight diesel market conditions, widening the crack spread significantly.
• Air cargo yields continued to decline annually but saw a month-over-month increase, indicating potential stabilization in yield trends.

Happy Thanks to you and your family! HOPE THIS HELPS!!

Source Alliance Network office will be closed in observance of the Thanksgiving Holiday on Thursday, November 27th and Friday, November 28th. Have a Happy Thanksgiving!

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