Summary: The impacts of Winter Storm Fern have caused a brief pause in the spot market and a decline in dry van outbound tender rates. The SONAR National Truckload Index seven-day average fell 2 cents to $2.59 per mile all-in, down from $2.61 on Jan. 19. The lingering effects from the storm itself caused a 2-cent-per-mile increase from $2.57 on Jan. 24.
Given historical trends, this small gain may be a flash in the pan, as winter weather events prove to be temporary measures against a backdrop of lower first-quarter freight demand. One positive, despite the seasonal declines, is that the NTI is up 17 cents per mile compared to $2.42 last year.
In the contract space, dry van outbound tender rejection rates posted week-over-week gains. The SONAR Truckload Rejection Index Van gained 77 basis points, rising from 9.08% on Jan. 19 to 9.85%. STRIV is 145 basis points lower than 11.30% last month and 345 basis points higher than 6.40% last year.
Looking ahead, the acceleration of capacity leaving the market from both government regulatory oversight and bankruptcies will be a major development to watch.
During an earnings call with analysts, Knight-Swift CEO and Director Adam Miller said, “Capacity reduction is clearly underway. Regulatory enforcement of qualifications and safety standards was arguably the most welcome development in 2025 for our industry. The influx of capacity from 2021 to 2024, much of which was playing by a different set of rules and operating with different cost structures, has distorted pricing behaviors and cyclical patterns.”
