THE SIGNAL

Friday, February 13, 2026

The five minutes that make you the most informed person in freight today

The Signal

Trump EPA kills the emissions rulebook — and the EV mandate dies with it

The Trump administration formally rescinded the Obama-era Endangerment Finding that underpinned federal greenhouse gas regulation since 2009. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced the move alongside a draft rule rolling back the Biden-era GHG Phase 3 standards — the rule that would have required 25% of new heavy trucks sold in the U.S. to be zero-emission by 2032. That mandate is now dead.

This removes the legal foundation for all federal GHG regulation of heavy-duty trucks. Without the Endangerment Finding, EPA loses authority to set greenhouse gas standards for the sector. The 2027 NOx standards are separate and still expected to partially take effect, but the EV mandate for Class 8 trucks is finished federally. The Environmental Defense Fund estimates the rollback will result in over 10 billion tons of additional pollution and cost consumers more than $2 trillion through 2055.

The fleet impact is immediate. Brent Hickman of Pilot Company noted the 2027 emissions standards "are going to happen" — the engineering is done, the technology is built. But EV sales quotas forcing truck makers toward zero-emission vehicles are gone, giving diesel a longer runway. OOIDA President Todd Spencer called electric trucks "prohibitively expensive and impractical for small carriers." One small-fleet owner told EPA his emissions equipment caused breakdowns with repair quotes of $21,000 on a truck worth $30,000.

Carriers: The pressure to budget for EV fleet transitions is off the table federally — focus capex on 2027 NOx-compliant diesel platforms.

Shippers: Sustainability commitments tied to carrier EV adoption need recalibrating.

OEMs: Production allocation shifts back toward diesel; EV programs lose their regulatory tailwind.

So What? The federal government just told the trucking industry that the EV transition is optional, not mandatory. Diesel gets a longer life. But the 2027 NOx standards are still coming, OEMs have already engineered compliance, and state-level regulations (especially California) remain in play. The regulatory landscape didn’t simplify — it fragmented. Your equipment strategy now depends on where you operate, not just what Washington says.

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Top Stories

Logistics stocks crater as AI fear trade finds its latest victim

Logistics stocks plunged Thursday in the worst sector drop since April’s trade-war meltdown. A former karaoke company with a $6 million market cap trumpeted an AI-powered logistics platform, sending the Russell 3000 Trucking Index down 6.6%. C.H. Robinson tumbled 15% — at one point down a record 24% — while Landstar fell 16%. Analysts called it overdone, noting major shippers are unlikely to abandon established brokers for an unproven platform that replicates capabilities incumbents have already built.

So What? Wall Street has become so jittery about AI disruption that a micro-cap company’s press release can erase billions in market capitalization in hours. Analysts described the selloff as a sentiment-driven overreaction rather than a fundamental shift in how freight brokerage operates.

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House votes 219-211 to overturn Trump’s tariffs on Canada — veto expected

The House voted 219-211 to terminate the national emergency Trump declared to justify tariffs on Canadian imports, with six Republicans joining Democrats. The resolution did not reach the two-thirds majority needed to override a presidential veto, and Trump is expected to reject it. Current U.S.-Canada tariffs sit at 35% on many goods, with steel and aluminum at 50% and threats of up to 100%. Trump warned on Truth Social that Republicans voting in opposition would "seriously suffer the consequences come Election time."

So What? The vote reveals bipartisan unease with the tariff regime but lacks the votes to override a veto. The administration has also publicly weighed withdrawing from the USMCA, the trade pact Trump signed in 2020 to replace NAFTA.

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The non-domicile CDL final rule isn’t perfect — but it’s still a win

FMCSA’s final rule eliminates Employment Authorization Documents as a CDL pathway, restricting eligibility to H-2A, H-2B, and E-2 visa holders only. Every state must now run applicants through the SAVE federal verification system. Of roughly 200,000 non-domiciled CDL holders, FMCSA estimates 97% — approximately 194,000 drivers — will not qualify under the new requirements, aging out as licenses expire at an estimated 30,000-40,000 per year. A legal challenge was filed in the D.C. Circuit one day after publication.

So What? The rule addresses a core safety gap: drivers with unverifiable backgrounds were obtaining CDLs through documents not designed for transportation safety screening. FMCSA’s five-year exit timeline is intended to give carriers time to adjust hiring strategies.

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Around the Freight Web

RXO loses investment-grade rating from Moody’s — Moody’s downgraded the 3PL from Baa3 to Ba1, citing elevated leverage with a projected debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 4.0x and ongoing weakness in the freight brokerage market. RXO said it has "a strong balance sheet, access to significant capital, and a low leverage ratio." S&P Global had already rated RXO below investment grade.

Trump team working to narrow steel and aluminum tariffs — Commerce Department and USTR officials believe the 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum are hurting consumers by raising prices on goods including food cans and auto parts. A Reuters/Ipsos poll showed 59% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of cost of living. Aluminum prices dropped more than 2.5% on the reports.

Trucking’s shadow insurance market: 209,854 crashes, zero guarantee fund protection — FreightWaves investigation exposes systemic risks tied to Risk Retention Groups that leave crash victims with no state guaranty fund backstop when insurers go insolvent. One RRG president embezzled $19 million, leaving 1,008 trucks effectively uninsured. The federal minimum liability of $750,000, set in the 1980s, would be $5.5 million inflation-adjusted today.

What We’re Watching

▸ EPA Endangerment Finding rescission heads to court. Environmental groups are expected to challenge the rollback. The 2027 NOx standards remain on track separately, per industry sources including Pilot Company.

▸ Canada tariff resolution lacks veto-proof majority. House passed 219-211 but needs two-thirds to override. Senate has approved similar measures, but the math doesn’t add up for an override.

▸ Gordie Howe bridge standoff tests North American freight flows. The Detroit-Windsor corridor is the busiest U.S.-Canada truck crossing. The Moroun family, owners of the competing Ambassador Bridge, have spent years lobbying against the new bridge project.

That’s your Signal for today. See you tomorrow.

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