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This week’s top stories in trucking

J.B. Hunt Sees 20% Truckload Rate Surge Over Two Years

J.B. Hunt Transport Services expects truckload rates to climb 20 percent over the next two years as stricter regulatory enforcement removes capacity and carriers push to restore margins after years of cost inflation.

The carrier anticipates a double-digit rate run by the second half of 2026. Brad Hicks, president of dedicated contract services, described the environment as “steady as she goes, rates are going up,” even without major demand catalysts.

Food and industrial segments are performing well, though housing remains challenged. Bid activity outside normal cycles is surging as shippers scramble to lock down capacity. Driver sign-on bonuses are now required in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Texas.

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SCOTUS Broker Liability Ruling Reshapes Industry Risk

The Supreme Court’s unanimous decision in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, LLC strips brokers of protection under the Federal Aviation Administration Authorization Act (FAAAA), exposing them to state tort lawsuits when carriers they hire cause accidents.

Wall Street reacted swiftly on May 14, 2026. RXO plunged 8.83 percent while truckload carriers surged — Schneider National jumped 11.07 percent. Deutsche Bank estimates 20 percent of trucking faces “grave financial consequences,” with 60 percent of brokerages “in peril.”

Large 3PLs may emerge stronger. RXO said the ruling “will accelerate industry consolidation, reinforcing the long-term competitive advantage of scaled players.”

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Texas AG Probes CDL Schools Over English Proficiency Requirements

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is targeting commercial driver training schools in a sweeping investigation launched April 28, alleging some graduates obtained commercial driver’s licenses without meeting federal English-language proficiency standards.

The probe targets five schools operating across major Texas freight markets, including El Paso, San Antonio and the Dallas-Fort Worth corridor. Investigators allege the schools advertised programs to non-English speakers, offered accelerated timelines and falsely claimed certification status.

Federal regulations require CDL holders to read and speak English sufficiently to understand highway signs, respond to official inquiries and maintain records.

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Wabash Faces Third Credit Downgrade in 12 Months

Moody’s slashed Wabash National’s corporate family rating to B3 on May 5 — the third downgrade in a year — citing “very weak, unsustainable” credit metrics. The trailer manufacturer now sits six notches below investment grade as customers defer fleet purchases during the prolonged freight recession.

First-quarter trailer shipments dropped to 5,378 units, down from 13,670 in the third-quarter 2022 peak. Cash on hand fell sharply to $31.9 million from $144.5 million a year earlier.

Chief Executive Officer Brent Yeagy sees “early signs of stabilization,” pointing to an $837 million backlog — up 19 percent sequentially and the strongest first-quarter growth in company history. Moody’s expects debt-to-EBITDA to hit 6 times by the end of 2027.

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BMO’s Trucking Lending Arm Sold to Stonepeak

Stonepeak is acquiring BMO Financial Group’s transportation lending unit — one of the largest lenders in trucking — with BMO retaining a 19.9 percent minority stake. The deal, expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026, covers a combined $14.5 billion book of business.

The acquisition ends a valuable industry resource: BMO’s quarterly credit data that revealed trucking sector health through write-offs, impaired loans and provisions. That transparency disappears once BMO becomes a minority owner.

Gary Kempsinski, head of the BMO group, said Stonepeak “brings deep experience, operating expertise, and relationships in North American transportation and logistics infrastructure.”

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SONAR spotlight: Road check week has ended, but spot rate hikes have begun

(Source: SONAR)

Summary: Roadcheck week recently ended, but its impact on dry van spot rates is notable. Dry van all-in spot rates have reached their highest recorded May levels in the SONAR dataset. For the moment, the capacity-driven crunch has propelled spot rates to levels not seen since the pandemic freight boom of 2021.

The SONAR National Truckload Index 7-day average (NTI) rose 18 cents per mile from $3.09 on May 7 to $3.27 per mile. The NTI is 19 cents per mile, or 6.2%, higher than last month. Compared to last year, the NTI is $1.04 per mile, or 46.6%, higher.

Dry van outbound tender rejection rates also are being impacted. The SONAR Truckload Rejection Index Van (STRIV) rose 253 basis points week-over-week from 12.33% to 14.86%. STRIV is 327 basis points higher than 11.59% last month. The most striking number is the year-over-year comparison. STRIV is 1,011 basis points higher than 4.75% in 2025.

Looking ahead, the argument that the freight market is in a capacity-driven upcycle continues to strengthen. In addition to Roadcheck week causing an increase in spot rates, the extent of the rate bump is notable. Dry van tender rejection rates are at their highest levels since 2021; however, a key difference compared to 2021 is that STRIV was 921 basis points higher at 24.07%.

Trucking executives also are taking notice. At a recent Bank of America Industrials conference, executives at J.B. Hunt updated their outlook for higher rates. FreightWaves’ Todd Maiden wrote, “J.B. Hunt’s outlook for a 20% two-year-stacked rate increase includes a double-digit run rate by the back half of this year. It is currently seeing ‘a lot of bid activity’ outside of the typical annual rate cycle as customers look to lock down capacity.”

This can also benefit truckload carriers that are more diversified outside of traditional one-way lanes. Maiden added for J.B. Hunt, “Management said it will likely be the next bid cycle before it can meaningfully increase rates, but noted very good modal conversion opportunities as intermodal is running at a 20% to 25% discount to TL.”