Summary: Dry van spot rates saw a slight decline during the last week of September. Despite the decline, the SONAR National Truckload Index 7-Day Average remains higher than it was during the same period in the last two years. The NTI fell 1 cent per mile all-in week-over-week from $2.31 on Sept. 22 to $2.30. Compared to last year, the NTI is 9 cents per mile higher than $2.21 and 3 cents per mile higher than $2.27 in 2023.
In the contract space, dry van outbound tender rejection rates settled 12 basis points higher in the past week from 5.01% to 5.13%. Compared to last month, VOTRI is 58 basis points lower. Carrier pricing power remains more favorable compared to last year, when VOTRI was 73 basis points lower at 4.40%.
Excess truckload capacity in the for-hire space remains. Despite larger for-hire carriers reducing truck count, abundant truckload capacity in the spot market continues to weigh down hopes of a sustained rally outside of seasonal expectations.
Another headwind is the impact of private fleets that are taking a greater share of their parent shippers’ freight compared to previous years. According to a recent National Private Truck Council 2025 benchmark report, private fleets hit 75% of outbound market share in calendar year 2023. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, that average was 67%. Private fleet share of inbound freight also grew, reaching an all-time high of 43% in 2024. Inbound market share has exceeded 40% for two of the last four years.
It remains to be seen what effect the additional DOT and FMCSA scrutiny being levied toward non-domiciled CDL holders will have. Last Friday, the FMCSA issued emergency rulemaking restricting non-domiciled CDL holders. FreightWaves’ Rob Carpenter wrote, “The rule, effective immediately upon publication in the Federal Register on Sept. 29, limits non-domiciled CDL eligibility to foreign nationals holding H-2A agricultural worker visas, H-2B temporary non-agricultural worker visas, or E-2 treaty investor visas. Employment Authorization Documents alone will no longer qualify applicants for the specialized licenses.”
The rule is estimated to affect 200,000 current non-domiciled CDL holders and 20,000 commercial learner’s permit holders. FMCSA estimates only about 6,000 drivers annually will qualify for non-domiciled credentials under the new restrictions. While this is a capacity-reducing event, it is unknown at this time if this will be enough to meaningfully impact spot market rates outside of seasonal moves.
