Summary: The second week of November saw a softening in nationwide outbound tender rejection rates while nationwide outbound tender volumes gained strength. Outbound tender rejection rates fell 13 basis points in the past week from 5.99% on Nov. 10 to 5.86%. Despite the decline, compared to last year, OTRI is 29 basis points higher than 5.57%.
Outbound tender volumes posted gains but remain depressed compared to 2024. OTVI rose 56 points or less than half a percent week over week from 9,587.15 points to 9,643.15 points. Compared to last year, OTVI is 1,530.77 points or 13.7% lower than 11,173.92 points.
When breaking down outbound tender rejection rates by segment, dry van and flatbed saw week-over-week gains while reefer saw declines. Dry van tender rejection rates rose 10 basis points week over week from 5.49% to 5.59%. Flatbed tender rejection rates rose 315 basis points from 10.15% to 13.30%. Reefer was the only decline, falling 203 basis points week over week from 15.26% to 13.23%.
At the moment, despite regulatory scrutiny and recent court orders impacting non-domiciled CDL holders, there remains an excess of truckload capacity relative to truckload demand. Concerns over consumer goods demand paired with higher costs are weighing down truckload volumes. While trucking is entering its historical peak season, the next two weeks are worth watching. If outbound tender volumes and rejection rates rally, then a seasonal bump is to be expected. But if we continue to see lagging upward movement or a delay, that would be a warning sign for the year ahead for carriers already struggling with higher costs relative to what they can charge to haul.
