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In this week’s edition: Heartland Express rebrands CFI amid shakeup; Morgan Stanley report sees 2026 supply-side trucking "spark"; two Minnesota carriers shut down, impacting 200 drivers; a look at non-domiciled CDL drivers and highway safety; Mexico blockades choke border trade; and commentary on the trucking industry needing better crash data.

As always, thanks for reading.

– Thomas Wasson

This week’s stories from the wide world of Trucking

TRUCKING

Heartland Express shakes up operations with CFI rebrand

Integration comes amid extended stretch of losses for TL carrier

TRUCKING

Morgan Stanley sees supply-side ‘spark’ for trucking in 2026

Investment firm’s base case calls for mid-single-digit rate increases

BANKRUPTCIES

Two Minnesota carriers shut down, idling 200 drivers

MinStar Transport and Transport Design Inc., each operating fleets of around 100 trucks, announced their immediate closures in communications to employees and partners

CDL ISSUES

Non-Domiciled CDL Drivers and Highway Safety: What the Numbers Say, What They Don’t

FMCSA does not track crash involvement by a driver’s citizenship or CDL category, which means national crash trends cannot be linked to any specific subgroup.

TRUCKING

Blockades choke Mexico’s border trade as farmers, truckers escalate unrest

Farmers protesting water-law reforms and truckers decrying highway violence trigger widespread disruptions

TRUCKING

Commentary: the trucking industry needs better crash data

The FMCSA can do much more with the tools it has

BROUGHT TO YOU BY SAMSARA

AI cuts fleet crashes by nearly 75% for some carriers

New report reveals how AI is helping transform driver behavior and road safety worldwide. See the Report.

SONAR spotlight: Dry van peak season surge continues

(Source: SONAR)

Summary: With a little more than two weeks until Christmas, trucking capacity continues to tighten ahead of the holiday. Dry van spot market and outbound tender rejection rates continue to climb, in line with seasonal expectations.

In the past week, the SONAR National Truckload Index 7-day average rose 3 cents per mile, all-in, from $2.44 on Dec. 1 to $2.47. That’s 12 cents higher than $2.35 last month but 2 cents lower than $2.49 last year. The SONAR two-year seasonally adjusted moving average (SAMA) feature forecasts the NTI to dip, then rebound, leading up to New Year’s. Interestingly, for an out-of-season dip, the dataset is split between 2023, when the NTI fell, and 2024, when it increased at a rate similar to this year. Notably, compared with 2023, more factors are limiting truckload capacity supply than in the previous two years.

Dry van outbound tender rejection rates also rose, reaching levels not seen since the Fourth of July holiday. The dry van outbound tender rejection index (VOTRI) increased 85 basis points week over week, from 6.21% to 6.97%. That’s 135 basis points higher than 5.62% last month and 158 basis points higher than 5.39% in 2024. A look back at the past two years of dry van tender rejection rates reveals a similar peak-season surge, but 2025 is shaping up much more favorably based on year-over-year comparisons.

Looking ahead, expect continued peak-season noise to drown out freight market signals amid the impacts of government scrutiny, supply-chain-related tariff uncertainty and less truckload demand relative to excess truckload supply. Rarely has the freight cycle changed on truckload supply alone; there also must be a demand catalyst. At this time, while peak season is meeting expectations, there does not appear to be a sudden, clear and recognizable truckload demand signal to suggest that the freight cycle is officially on the upswing. Until then, expect continued capacity tightness that should extend into the new year, with the next major milestone being how much capacity returns following the holiday season.