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The Daily
Norfolk Southern and CMA CGM launch ‘truck-like’ intermodal product
The truckload-to-rail conversion argument just got a new sales pitch.
Norfolk Southern and CMA CGM are launching a new intermodal product under NS’s Triple Crown brand that’s designed to strip away the friction that keeps shippers from moving long-haul freight off the highway. The service uses 40-foot high-cube containers — the same capacity as a standard truckload — and operates door-to-door. Opening lanes run from Los Angeles to Cleveland, Columbus, and Detroit. Norfolk Southern’s stated goal is to make the move look and feel like a truck move while delivering the scale and sustainability advantages of rail.
The timing isn’t accidental. Truckload spot rates are running around $2.80 per mile nationally — up 23% year over year. Domestic intermodal spot rates are sitting at $1.39 per mile, actually down 5% from a year ago. That nearly $1.41/mile gap is historically wide and historically unsustainable. When truckload tightens this sharply, railroads gain the leverage to convert freight that was previously uncompetitive on price. NS is clearly trying to capture that window before it closes.
The broader context matters here too. Norfolk Southern is currently in the process of being acquired by Union Pacific — a transcontinental merger the two carriers say will convert 2 million highway truckloads to rail over 10 years. CMA CGM’s partnership plugs directly into the ocean carrier’s extensive North American intermodal network across BNSF, NS, CSX, CP, CN, and UP, giving the new service immediate commercial reach.
So What? If you’re moving freight from Southern California ports to Midwest distribution centers, this service warrants a close look. The door-to-door model eliminates the biggest operational headache of intermodal: the drayage coordination at each end. The question intermodal always comes back to is transit time reliability, and that’s exactly what this product will need to prove before shippers commit volume at scale.
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Top Stories
FMCSA ran 1,400 sting operations on CDL trainers and found exactly what it expected
FMCSA mobilized more than 300 investigators across all 50 states last week for a five-day enforcement blitz targeting CDL training providers — and the results were damning. The agency conducted 1,426 on-site investigations, issued 448 proposed removal notices, and watched 109 training providers voluntarily pull themselves from the Training Provider Registry before auditors could knock. More than 550 sham schools were flagged in total. Violations included fake addresses, unqualified instructors, and failure to train drivers on hazardous materials. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy didn’t mince words: “For too long, the trucking industry has operated like the Wild, Wild West, where anything goes and nobody asks any questions.” FMCSA has now removed more than 7,000 CDL schools from its registry since 2025.
So What? The driver supply math just got more complicated. Every sham school shut down means fewer CDL candidates entering the pipeline — and in a market where non-domiciled CDL enforcement is already removing tens of thousands of drivers, this is another supply constraint layering on top. The 448 schools facing removal have 30 days to prove compliance. Any students currently enrolled at those schools are in limbo. Carriers that source new drivers through ELDT programs should be auditing their training partners now.
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J.B. Hunt is “a little bit more positive” and in freight, that actually means something
J.B. Hunt posted Q4 diluted EPS of $1.90, up from $1.53 a year ago, even as total operating revenue dipped 2% to $3.1 billion. The real signal is behind the headline: the company has hit an annualized cost-savings run rate above $100 million, management entered 2026 citing “solid momentum,” and Stephens raised its 12-month price target to $235 from $180 with an Overweight rating. On intermodal, analysts expect volume growth to be challenged in the first half due to 2025’s import pull-forward — but forecast a return to volume growth and firmer pricing in H2 if truckload tightness continues. Dedicated contracts look for moderate income growth, and brokerage — still unprofitable — is expected to turn the corner this year.
So What? When J.B. Hunt management says “a little bit more positive” after the deepest freight recession in a decade, that’s as close to a bullish signal as you’re going to get from this company. The $100M cost reduction program gives them self-help levers regardless of what the demand side does. With intermodal pricing expected to firm in H2 as truckload tightens, the back half of 2026 could look meaningfully different from the first.
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TFI International is already warning that Q1 is rough (weather is only part of the story)
TFI International guided Q1 2026 adjusted EPS to $0.50–$0.60, a sharp step down from $0.76 in Q1 2025. CEO Alain Bedard described it as a “transition environment.” CFO David Saperstein got more granular: weather alone cost the company $5–6 million in extra overtime, dock inefficiencies, and cleanup costs. U.S. LTL margins are projected to drop 250 basis points year over year, with weather accounting for roughly 100 of those. January was, in Saperstein’s words, “very, very difficult” on both volume and cost. The bright spot: LTL volumes improved heading into February, and management sees a path to flat volumes versus 2025 for the full quarter. BofA upgraded TFI to Neutral and raised its price target to $123, citing potential for strong cash generation and operational improvement in U.S. LTL.
So What? TFI’s Q1 guidance is a real-time read on the LTL market’s health. The structural issues — weak freight demand, pricing pressure — are real, but the weather amplification means Q2 and Q3 could look better than Q1 suggests if volumes stabilize through March. Watch for TFI’s actual Q1 report to separate weather impact from the underlying business trend.
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FedEx is repricing its network to push out e-commerce consumers
FedEx’s Investor Day message was its bluntest yet: the company wants premium B2B relationships and high-value, long-haul, heavy direct-to-consumer parcels. It does not want to be a local courier for lightweight, low-margin e-commerce packages. The numbers back the strategy. FedEx implemented a 5.9% average GRI effective January 5, but the real action is in the surcharges: residential delivery fees up 6–8%, additional handling up 5–7%, oversize surcharges up 6–10%. Starting January 12, FedEx layered in new cubic volume rules on top of its traditional dimensional weight calculation, pulling more e-commerce packages into higher fee tiers. Surcharges now account for roughly one-third of a package’s total cost when fuel is included.
So What? FedEx is actively conceding lightweight, low-margin e-commerce volume to cheaper competitors — and treating that as a feature, not a bug. For retailers who’ve built their parcel strategy around FedEx rates, the 2026 invoice is going to sting. The 5.9% headline hides what could be a 10–12% effective cost increase for residential e-commerce shippers once you layer in all the surcharge changes. Now is the time to audit your parcel contracts.
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What We’re Watching
▸ Whether NS/CMA CGM’s truck-like intermodal can actually convert truckload volume at scale. The pitch is compelling: door-to-door, same container spec as a truck. But intermodal has sold that story before and stumbled on service consistency. Watch for shipper adoption signals in Q2 as the truckload-intermodal spread either holds or starts to narrow.
▸ CDL training enforcement downstream effects on driver supply. 7,000+ schools removed from the registry, 448 more facing proposed removal, and students at those schools in limbo. The pipeline tightening from the sham school crackdown layers directly on top of the non-domiciled CDL enforcement already pushing out 40,000 drivers per year. The cumulative math on driver supply deserves a full model.
▸ TFI International’s Q1 results as a barometer for LTL recovery. Management sees February volume improving and a path to flat Q1 versus last year — but pricing is still the open question. When TFI reports, it will separate how much of the Q1 weakness was weather and how much is structural. That read matters for every LTL shipper heading into spring bid season.
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