THE DAILY

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

The five minutes that makes you the most informed person in freight today

The Daily

2026 State of Logistics Report finds supply chain volatility is now a permanent condition

Volatility is no longer a disruption to supply chain planning. According to the 2026 State of Logistics Report released Tuesday, it is the operating environment itself. Companies that continue treating it as a temporary condition are the ones falling behind.

U.S. business logistics costs totaled $2.4 trillion last year, or 7.8% of GDP, down from $2.6 trillion and 8.7% of GDP in 2025. The headline number looks like progress. It isn’t. Lower costs reflect a soft freight rate environment driven by overcapacity, not a structural efficiency gain. The report, authored by Kearney and presented by Penske Logistics for the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals, identifies five structural forces showing no signs of resolution: asymmetrical global growth, tightening financial conditions from persistent inflation and rising public debt, geoeconomic realignment, labor and productivity constraints, and energy price volatility. Tariff policy changed on average every 1.5 weeks last year. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20 million barrels of oil per day and 20% of global LNG trade, remained a live chokepoint. GCC economies contracted 1.2% as Middle East conflict disrupted energy flows.

Artificial intelligence has crossed from evaluation into commercial returns in specific, well-defined applications. Physical AI, including warehouse robotics and autonomous vehicles, is hitting early commercial milestones. Adoption remains uneven, widening a gap between organizations embedding AI into core workflows and those still relying on point solutions. Sector divergence runs across every mode: air freight demand rose 3.4% globally while Asia-North America slipped 0.8% and Asia-Europe surged 10.3%. U.S. parcel daily volumes collapsed roughly 85% after removal of de minimis treatment for China-origin parcels. "The companies that will lead are those combining resilience, intelligent logistics and disciplined execution to protect margins and outperform in an increasingly volatile world," said Korhan Acar, a Kearney partner and lead author.

So What? The report’s directive is clear: stop designing supply chains for efficiency and start designing them for resilience. "The supply chain of right now is incredibly complex and requires a series of constant adjustments," said Mark Baxa, CSCMP president and CEO. "I surmise that next year’s logistics network will be hardly recognizable." That is not a call to panic. It is a mandate to build adaptability into procurement cycles, contracting approaches and technology investments now.

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Top Stories

Carriers raise driver pay as truckload recovery gains traction

The truckload market’s supply-led recovery is translating into higher driver pay, and some carriers aren’t waiting to act. GP Transco announced a 5-cents-per-mile increase for all company drivers, pushing the upper end of its pay scale to 72 cents per mile, plus an additional 6 cents available in incentives that could put a first-year driver at nearly $100,000. Hirschbach followed with a 10-cents-per-mile increase for over-the-road company and lease drivers. Both moves come as heightened regulatory enforcement, including tighter CDL non-domicile rules, English proficiency requirements, cabotage crackdowns and the Supreme Court’s broker liability ruling, continues to remove noncompliant capacity from the market. Carriers appearing at investor conferences this month flagged the potential for double-digit rate increases this year and next as routing guides crumble and contract rates set earlier this bid season prove too low.

So What? Carriers raising driver pay now are signaling confidence that the rate environment supports it. Shippers locked into routing guides that are already failing need to assess spot market exposure before Q3. Contract rates set this bid season are no longer reflective of market conditions, per publicly traded carriers. That repricing is coming whether or not shippers have modeled for it.

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Freight distress report: Carriers shut down, logistics firms cut hundreds of jobs in June

A fresh wave of bankruptcies and layoffs swept the transportation and logistics sector between June 5 and June 15, with carriers, truck dealers and logistics providers filing for Chapter 7 and Chapter 11 protection while hundreds of workers faced cuts. The largest carrier filing was Laredo, Texas-based Triple RRR Carriers, a cross-border trucking company with 177 power units and 286 drivers, which sought Chapter 7 liquidation in the Southern District of Texas. On the logistics side, Expeditors International eliminated roughly 230 technology positions across Washington state locations, while Dallas-area provider Alan Ritchey will close an Irving transfer center affecting 232 workers. American Expediting Logistics in Pennsylvania shut down entirely, citing an inability to secure financing. DHL Supply Chain, GXO Logistics and FedEx also disclosed facility closures and workforce reductions in the period.

So What? Financial stress persists across freight-related sectors even as portions of the market stabilize. The breadth of this distress round indicates the pain extends well beyond small over-the-road operators. Cross-border trucking, logistics technology, warehousing and last-mile delivery all appeared in the latest filings. Shippers should cross-reference any providers named in this report against their current carrier base for contingency planning.

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Cass data points to second-half volume recovery as TL rates post largest jump in four years

Cass Information Systems’ May freight data, released Monday, shows the market approaching an inflection after 40 straight months of year-over-year shipment declines. The multimodal shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell just 1.2% year over year in May, the smallest decline in 18 months, while freight expenditures surged 7.5% year over year, the largest increase since late 2022. Cass’ truckload linehaul rate index rose 6.9% year over year, the biggest jump in nearly four years, extending a streak of 17 consecutive months of year-over-year rate increases. "These are positive signs that a volume recovery in the second half of the year remains likely," the report said, pointing to tight inventories, falling tariffs and a soft U.S. dollar as demand tailwinds. Assuming historical seasonal trends, Cass projects a 1.8% year-over-year volume increase in the back half of 2026.

So What? Rate momentum is building faster than many shippers modeled. With linehaul rates up nearly 7% year over year and routing guides already failing at major carriers, a second-half demand turn would add volume pressure on top of existing supply constraints. Shippers entering Q3 without contract coverage on key lanes should expect a tighter spot market than the first half of 2026 suggested.

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USDOT awards SONAR contract for high-frequency freight market data

The U.S. Department of Transportation has awarded a contract to FreightWaves SONAR to supply high-frequency freight market data for federal transportation analysis and economic research. SONAR will provide datasets covering truckload, intermodal, ocean and air cargo activity to the Department’s Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology, giving federal analysts real-time context on freight movement across the U.S. economy. The partnership will support monitoring of freight market health, regulatory enforcement and supply chain resiliency. "As we continue to modernize our processes in the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, it is vital that the USDOT have access to the most robust and current data sources," said Lee White, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology. Craig Fuller, FreightWaves founder and CEO, put it plainly: "Freight is the heartbeat of the U.S. economy, and policymakers shouldn’t have to wait months to take its pulse."

So What? Federal regulators now have real-time freight market signals embedded in their policy and enforcement workflows. For the industry, SONAR-based data may increasingly inform decisions around carrier safety oversight, supply chain resiliency programs and infrastructure planning. It’s a significant institutional validation of high-frequency market intelligence as a standard reference beyond private-sector operators.

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What We’re Watching

▸ Second-half freight demand. Cass puts a 1.8% year-over-year volume increase in the back half of 2026 in its base case. Watch inventory restocking signals and whether falling tariffs translate into pull-forward demand before Q3 peaks. Any demand recovery landing on top of today’s supply constraints accelerates the rate cycle.

▸ Carrier capacity exits. The June distress report shows small and midsize carriers still failing even as rates climb. The regulatory purge of noncompliant drivers has momentum. Track SONAR’s Outbound Tender Rejection Index for early signals before contract renewal windows open in Q4.

▸ AI adoption divergence. The State of Logistics Report flags a widening gap between companies embedding AI into core workflows and those still confined to isolated point solutions. The next round of 3PL and logistics tech earnings will begin showing that gap in the margin data.

That’s your Daily for today. See you tomorrow.

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