Supply Chain Intelligence Brief

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TRUCKING

Cass Transportation Index Report February 2026 Truckload Rates on the Rise

Cass Information Systems March 16, 2026
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, rose 5.1% m/m in February. Expenditures were up 2.1% from the year-ago level in February, after a 0.6% y/y gain in January.

While shipment declines continue, the year over year increase in expenditures was driven by higher rates.

Midwest and West Coast rejection rates showing unprecedented disparity

Freight Waves Zach Strickland March 14, 2026

Regional truckload tender rejection rates typically move in sync, but the West Coast region — which includes California, Arizona and Nevada — has barely responded to recent disruptive events. Midwest tender rejection rates have remained above 18% for the past month, while West Coast rejection rates peaked near 5% in early February before retreating. What could be driving the divergence?

This week in trucking: 13,000 CDLs gone, diesel price hikes

Fleet Owner Jeremy Wolfe March 13, 2026

After a very long back-and-forth with the Department of Transportation (DOT), California buckled under federal pressure. California’s DMV cancelled roughly 13,000 non-domiciled CDLs, effective March 6. A remaining few thousand non-domiciled licenses will be valid until their expiration dates, but FMCSA is preventing California’s DMV from renewing or issuing any non-domiciled CDLs for the foreseeable future.

FedEx Overtakes UPS as the New King of Delivery

The Wall Street Journal Esther Fung March 14, 2026 $Subscription Based

For the first time in history, FedEx eclipsed United Parcel Service UPS this week in market capitalization, a sign of how much Wall Street is rewarding the delivery giant that can shrink the fastest to boost profits.

FedEx shares have climbed nearly 40% in the past two years, while UPS shares have dropped by about the same amount.

Related: Transport Topics FedEx Tops UPS in Market Value for First Time

Raquel Urtasun on Level-4 Autonomous Trucks How her startup, Waabi, is using simulation to train its AI

IEEE Spectrum Lawrence Ulrich March 13, 2026

Urtasun says the Waabi Driver can scale across a full range of vehicles, geographies and environments—although snowstorms can still create a no-go zone for now. It’s powered by what Urtasun calls the industry’s most advanced neural simulator. The verifiable, end-to-end AI model will be a “shared brain” that partners can transplant into cars, trucks, and pretty much anything on wheels.

SHIPPERS / 3PLs

Uber Freight outlook flags rising spot rates, cross-border disruptions

Freight Waves Noi Mahoney March 13, 2026

New report points to lane-level disruptions rather than broad market shifts as logistics volatility increases.

Link: Uber Freight Q1 2026 freight market update: What shippers should be watching now

INDUSTRY

Oil Industry Warns Trump Administration That Fuel Crunch Will Likely Worsen

The Wall Street Journal Collin Eaton and Benoit Morenne March 15, 2026 $Subscription Based

American oil executives delivered a bleak message to Trump officials in recent days: The energy crisis the Iran war has unleashed is likely to get worse.

U.S.-bound imports decline for the sixth consecutive month in February, reports S&P Global Market Intelligence

Logistics Management Jeff Berman March 13, 2026

The firm observed that import activity was two-fold, with industrial-focused imports falling, while consumer-focused imports saw some signs of recovery. And it added that tariff-driven uncertainty—as exemplified by the recent Supreme Court ruling, which ruled against the legality of the White House’s IEEPA tariffs, and was followed by 10% Section 122 tariffs for 150 days—impacted February’s numbers.

Why Strait of Hormuz maritime access is also its biggest weakness

Freight Waves Stuart Chirls March 13, 2026

Connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean, it’s a chokepoint for as much as 30% of global crude oil shipments moving by tanker, as well as critical shipments of liquefied natural and propane gas, petrochemicals and fertilizer for crops, notes Drewry Senior Associate Eirik Hooper, in a new report.

US exports to Middle East in limbo amid war zone service disruptions

Journal of Commerce Michael Angell March 13, 2026 $Subscription Based

While the logistical hurdles for Middle East cargo are more of an inconvenience at this point for US exporters rather than a full-blown crisis, shippers see a bigger risk in the war’s longevity and the downstream effect of higher oil prices.

TECHNOLOGY

When Humanoid Robots Come to a Small-Town Factory

The Wall Street Journal John Keilman March 15, 2026 $Subscription Based

CHERAW, S.C.—Inside a Schaeffler auto-parts factory, a most unusual worker toils away.

Stepping gingerly across the metal floor, it holds its four-fingered hands at chest level until it reaches its objective: a 25-pound basket of bearing components fresh from a stamping press.

RyderVentures bets on ‘Physical AI’ to break warehouse automation’s biggest barriers

Freight Waves Thomas Wasson March 12, 2026

For RyderVentures, there’s a convergence happening in the warehouse space that most in the industry are missing. The corporate venture arm of Ryder System has spent five years betting on disruptive technologies across advanced vehicle technology, e-commerce, digitization and warehouse automation.

SUSTAINABILITY / SAFETY / SECURITY

CVSA to Enforce New ELD‑Tampering Out‑of‑Service Rule April 1

Transport Topics Noël Fletcher March 13, 2026

The Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance has a new out-of-service condition effective April 1 for truckers and motor carriers disobeying federal driving limits by tampering with electronic logging devices.

BUSINESS AND THE ECONOMY

Economy Expanded at Sluggish 0.7% in Q4

Transport Topics/Associated Press Paul Wiseman March 13, 2026

Growth in gross domestic product — the nation’s output of goods and services — was down sharply from 4.4% in last year’s third quarter and 3.8% in the second. And the fourth-quarter number was half the government’s first estimate of 1.4%; economists had expected the revision to go the other way — and show stronger growth.

Link: Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP (Second Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2025

The Map of U.S. Prosperity Is Changing. Here’s Where Companies Should Invest.

HBR Jaymes Cloninger and Bradley Schurman March 13, 2026 $Subscription Based

Where an organization locates operations, builds supply chains, recruits talent, and invests capital now determines its ability to withstand shocks as much as its pricing or product mix. What leaders need isn’t another ranking of “best cities,” but a way to see how these systems interact across places over time. A place-based framework to evaluate long-term civic viability, known as The Geography of Prosperity Index, examines five interconnected systems that increasingly determine whether a region can sustain prosperity.

INDUSTRY EVENTS

MODEX

April 13-16 Atlanta, GA

MODEX2026

TMSA

June 7-9 Denver, CO

Elevate

SMC³

June 29 -July 1 Palm Beach, FL

Connections 26