Supply Chain Intelligence Brief

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TRUCKING

US truckload pricing remains unsettled despite red-hot December

Journal of Commerce Ari Ashe January 7, 2026 $Subscription Based

The newfound strength in US truckload pricing could become a turning point if it lasts until mid-February, long enough that shippers could see it in their contracts, but there are also plenty of hazards that could cause the freight recession to linger into a fourth year, analysts warn.

Duffy Yanks $160M From California Over Non-Domiciled CDLs

Transport Topics Noël Fletcher January 7, 2026

U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy is making good on a threat and withholding nearly $160 million to California for failing to revoke more than 17,000 illegally issued non-domiciled commercial driver licenses by the “agreed-upon” Jan. 5 deadline.

Related: Freight Waves DOT strips California of $160M over foreign truckers

McKinsey Sees Momentum Building in Autonomous Trucking

Heavy Duty Trucking Jack Roberts January 7, 2026

In a roundtable discussion with trucking journalists at CES 2026 on Jan. 6., McKinsey partner Moritz Rittstieg noted that autonomous trucking technology is advancing faster than it has in years.

SHIPPERS / 3PLs

Adobe: Online holiday sales exceed $250 billion for first time in 2025

Digital Commerce 360 Abbas Haleem January 7, 2026

• Electronics, apparel and furniture combined to account for more than half of ecommerce growth year over year in the 2025 holiday shopping season.
• Consumers spent $20 billion online using buy now, pay later (BNPL) in the last two months of 2025.

What shaped retail’s holiday season in 2025

Retail Dive January 6, 2026

“The Costco Economy is a sign that middle class families feel squeezed,” Navy Federal Credit Union Chief Economist Heather Long said by email. “Inflation is ticking back up, and unemployment is rising. The middle class is still spending, but they are focused on the basics and little splurges. Larger tax refunds in 2026 will help in the spring, but it’s going to be a tough winter.”

US manufacturing activity drops to lowest point of 2025: PMI

Trucking Dive Nathan Owens January 7, 2026

“When new orders start turning around and expand for more than a month at a time — one, two, three, four, five months — then you’re going to see it flow to production and backlog, and then everything should follow,” Spence said.

INDUSTRY

The U.S. Pumps More Crude Than Anyone Else. Here’s Why It Wants Venezuela’s Too.

The Wall Street Journal Ryan Dezember and Drew An-Pham January 7, 2026 $Subscription Based

The U.S. pumps more oil than any other country, so why do President Trump and officials including Secretary of State Marco Rubio think American refineries need Venezuelan crude?

While the shale drilling boom has unleashed a flood of oil from places like West Texas and North Dakota, it is often not the right kind of crude for American refiners.

U.S. Customs Ditches Paper Checks as Importers Await Tariff Refund Decision

The Wall Street Journal Liz Young and Paul Berger January 7, 2026 $Subscription Based

Customs and Border Protection on Tuesday said it would introduce an all-electronic refund process in February that would make it quicker and easier to claim back payments, part of a plan across the federal government to eliminate paper payments.

Related: Supply Chain Dive CBP to cease paper-based refunds

Everstream predicts top four supply chain disruptions for 2026

Supply Chain Xchange January 7, 2026

The most likely event is “Geopolitical Fragmentation and Strategic Use of Trade Regulations” (97% threat level). For example, export controls on critical minerals doubled from 2023 to 2025, while other trade restrictions increased 167%, Everstream said. China controls 85% of rare earth processing, while 95% of semiconductor-grade silicon comes from just four companies globally.

3-way combo emerges for digital load matching: DAT, AscendTMS and Convoy

Freight Waves John Kingston January 7, 2026

The Convoy tech stack acquired by DAT, which so far had not yet made a notable impact at the company known mostly for its load board, is being integrated into the AscendTMS transportation management system, a significant step in its revival.

TECHNOLOGY

How CIOs can brace for AI-fueled cyberthreats

CIO Dive Jen A. Miller January 7, 2026

In 2024, 73% of all reported cyber incidents were business email compromise attacks — up 44% from 2023, according to Eye Security. In a separate study, VIPRE Security Group analyzed 1.8 billion emails and found that 40% of business compromise attack emails in that group were generated by AI.

SUSTAINABILITY / SAFETY / SECURITY

Korean logistics technology company GLEC Showcases AI-Driven DTG Technology for Real-Time Road Freight Carbon Measurement at CES

ACROFAN USA January 8, 2026

Rather than relying on post-calculation models or average assumptions, GLEC emphasized a measurement-first architecture in which carbon emissions are captured directly from vehicles during operation. The company presented two flagship products: GLEC Carbon DTG and GLEC AI DTG Series 5, both engineered for immediate deployment in commercial freight fleets.

What Can Undermine a Carbon Tax?

Liberty Street Economics/Federal Reserve Bank of New York Pierre Coster et al. January 7, 2026

Several countries have implemented a carbon tax or cap-and-trade system to establish high carbon prices and create a disincentive for the use of fossil fuels. Essentially, the tax encourages firms to substitute toward low carbon emission energy. Costs also rise for firms down the supply chain that use production inputs with high-emission content, so the total impact of a carbon tax can be large.

Blackstone buys environmental services platform ATG from Morgan Stanley

ESG Dive Zoya Mirza January 7, 2026

The private equity giant called Alliance Technical Group a “clear market leader in emissions testing and monitoring” that would help serve a broad range of clients.

OIG report flags ongoing safety challenges for DOT in highway safety despite declining fatalities

Freight Waves John Paul Hampstead January 7, 2026

From 2021 to 2024, motor vehicle traffic fatalities dropped by 9 percent, from 43,230 to an estimated 39,345, per National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) data analyzed by OIG. This reduction is a positive trend, but the report cautions that fatalities remain alarmingly high.

Link: U.S. DOT Office of Inspector General DOT’s Top Management Challenges

BUSINESS AND THE ECONOMY

Private payrolls rose 41,000 in December, slightly below expectations, ADP says

CNBC Jeff Cox January 7, 2026

Companies added 41,000 hires for the month, a reversal from the loss of 29,000 in November, providing a positive sign for a labor market that otherwise struggled as 2025 came to a close. Private company payrolls had declined in three of the four months before the December release.

Link: ADP® National Employment Report

Services economy ends 2025 with growth, reports ISM

Logistics Management Jeff Berman January 7, 2026

ISM reported that 11 of the services sectors it tracks saw growth in December, including: Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Wholesale Trade; et al.

Link: Institute For Supply Management Services PMI® Report

The Risks of Prioritizing Short-Term Revenue Over Customer Fit

HBR Eric Janssen et al. January 7, 2026

Most startups measure success through top-line revenue growth. But beneath vanity metrics often lurks a hidden threat: sales debt. Like technical debt in software development, sales debt accumulates when companies prioritize short-term revenue over customer fit, creating financial drag, operational burdens, and strategic distractions that can undermine long-term success.

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