THE DAILY

Wednesday, February 18, 2026

The ten minutes that make you the most informed person in freight today

The Daily

The feds just came for Illinois’ CDL program; clock is ticking for 194,000 drivers nationwide

Illinois is now the fourth state to get a federal warning letter over how it issues commercial driver’s licenses to foreign nationals — and the consequences are escalating.

The U.S. Department of Transportation sent a “Preliminary Determination of Noncompliance” to Governor JB Pritzker on Tuesday after a federal audit found systemic failures in how Illinois issues non-domiciled CDLs — licenses granted to drivers who are not U.S. citizens or permanent residents. Regulators discovered that Illinois had issued CDLs to foreign nationals that remained valid long after their legal presence in the U.S. had expired. The state also failed to verify the lawful presence of many applicants, relying on expired documents or insufficient paperwork. Illinois now risks losing $128 million in federal highway funding.

The federal government has ordered Illinois to immediately pause the issuance of all new and renewed non-domiciled CDLs and commercial learner’s permits, conduct an internal audit, and begin the process of voiding or rescinding all noncompliant licenses. Nearly identical warnings have already been sent to North Carolina in January, and to California and Pennsylvania late last year.

These state-level actions are part of a broader federal push under an executive order issued by President Trump last year that directed FMCSA to audit state licensing agencies for irregularities in non-domiciled CDLs. And last week, FMCSA finalized its sweeping overhaul of the non-domiciled regulations: the final rule limits eligibility to H-2A, H-2B, and E-2 nonimmigrant visa holders, requires enhanced interagency vetting, and no longer accepts employment authorization documents (EADs) as proof of eligibility.

The capacity math is stark: there are roughly 200,000 non-domiciled CDL holders operating in the U.S. today. FMCSA’s own analysis estimates that 97% of them will not qualify under the new requirements, meaning approximately 194,000 drivers will age out of the system as their current licenses expire. Rather than an overnight cliff, the industry is looking at a periodic attrition of roughly 40,000 drivers per year over the next five years.

So What? Four states have now been flagged, and the enforcement trajectory is only accelerating. If your carrier base relies on non-domiciled CDL holders — and in certain agricultural, intermodal, and drayage segments, a significant portion does — this is a capacity risk you need to be modeling right now. The 40,000-per-year attrition rate means the impact will hit incrementally, not all at once. Carriers with exposure should be communicating their workforce composition to shipper partners now, not when their trucks stop showing up.

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Top Stories

Truckload rates keep climbing and volume has nothing to do with it

Spot rates are holding around $2.80 per mile nationally — up 23% year over year — and tender rejections near 14% haven’t been this sticky since 2021. But the volumes driving those numbers? Still running below last year. The Logistics Managers’ Index tells the story: transportation capacity plunged to 36.9 in December, the lowest since October 2021, while transportation pricing hit 66.7. That’s a nearly 30-point gap between capacity and price. Carriers are leaving the market at roughly the same pace demand is declining, and that equilibrium is enough to push rates higher.

So What? A rate cycle driven by capacity exits rather than demand growth is a different animal. It can reverse quickly if volumes surge and pull trucks back, or it can accelerate if more carriers fold. For bid season, the math is the math — fewer trucks means higher prices, regardless of what the demand side says.

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California and Texas now account for 58% of worsening U.S. cargo theft crisis

The nation’s two largest logistics states are also its two biggest cargo theft hotspots, and the gap is widening. California alone represented 38% of all recorded cargo theft incidents in 2025, up from 32% the prior year, while Texas accounted for 20%, according to new data from supply chain risk management firm Overhaul. Together, the two states drove 2,576 reported thefts nationwide, an average of 7.16 per day, up from 6.07 in 2024. Deceptive pickup schemes, where criminals impersonate legitimate carriers, surged 35% year over year and now represent 10% of all cargo theft events. Overhaul projects thefts will climb another 13% in 2026.

So What? If you move freight through LA, San Bernardino, Dallas, or Houston, your exposure just went up. The shift toward deceptive pickups means the threat isn’t just at rest stops; it’s in your load board and your carrier vetting process. Double-brokering and identity fraud are the new pilferage.

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The freight downturn keeps claiming companies and bankruptcies aren’t slowing down

Bankruptcy filings continued to pile up across the U.S. supply chain in the first weeks of 2026, hitting trucking companies, 3PLs, repair shops, and manufacturers alike. Tacoma-based intermodal and drayage carrier Bee & G Enterprises filed Chapter 11 on February 14. San Antonio-based Santin Auto and Truck Repair Center followed a day earlier. One company cited a 65% decline in sales over three years, leading to 84 permanent layoffs and a facility closure. Across manufacturing, logistics, and transportation, layoffs have already surpassed 4,000 workers since January as companies close plants, restructure fulfillment networks, and try to survive tighter credit conditions.

So What? The paradox of this market is that rates are rising at the same time companies are failing. That’s not a contradiction — it’s cause and effect. Every carrier that folds removes capacity, which pushes rates higher for the survivors. If you’re a shipper, monitor your carrier base for financial stress signals. The next bankruptcy could be your primary carrier on a critical lane.

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New Jersey drops two-year case against NFI CEO Sidney Brown

The New Jersey Attorney General’s office has abandoned its prosecution of NFI CEO Sidney Brown and five co-defendants, bringing a definitive end to a case that began with a headline-grabbing June 2024 indictment tied to Camden redevelopment deals. The primary target was political powerbroker George Norcross, but Brown was swept in as an owner of a company that had sought to develop real estate in Camden — land that ultimately became the site of NFI’s current headquarters. A trial judge dismissed the indictment last year, asking pointedly about Brown and another businessman: “What did these men do?” An appellate court affirmed that decision, and the AG has now declined to pursue any further appeals.

So What? For the freight industry, this closes a cloud that had hung over the leadership of one of the largest privately held logistics companies in the country. NFI operates more than 60 million square feet of warehouse space and runs a major drayage and dedicated fleet. Brown’s legal resolution removes an overhang that, while never operationally disruptive, had generated persistent headlines.

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What We’re Watching

▸ The non-domiciled CDL enforcement wave. Four states flagged, 194,000 drivers on the clock, and FMCSA’s final rule now locking in stricter eligibility. The question isn’t whether driver supply tightens — it’s how fast, and which segments (drayage, ag, intermodal) feel it first.

▸ Cargo theft trajectory heading into peak season. With thefts up 16% year over year and deceptive pickups surging 35%, the trend line heading into the spring and summer shipping season is concerning. California and Texas shippers should be auditing carrier verification processes now.

▸ Supply chain bankruptcy pace in Q1. Layoffs have already topped 4,000 workers in the first seven weeks of 2026. If spot rates keep firming while credit conditions stay tight, the squeeze on mid-sized carriers and brokerages will intensify — and every closure removes capacity from an already thinning market.

That’s your Daily for today. See you tomorrow.

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