THE DAILY

Friday, May 1, 2026

The five minutes that make you the most informed person in freight today

The Daily

Fuller, Strickland call the freight recession over as rejection rates near 13%

The April State of Freight put a stake in the ground. Craig Fuller and Zach Strickland used Thursday’s webinar to declare the freight recession finished, and the data behind the call is harder to argue with than it was two months ago.

"There is no freight recession right now. We are clearly done with it," Fuller said on the call. The numbers back him up. The SONAR Truckload Rejection Index (OTRI) is running near 12.7%, levels the market hasn’t seen in years. Truckload Tender Volume Index (STVI.USA) is up roughly 11% to 13% year over year, and Strickland flagged that the seasonal "air gap" that defined last spring isn’t there this time. Diesel (DTS.USA) has climbed more than 41% since March 2 on Iran-related fuel volatility, but Fuller said pricing power is coming from capacity, not the pump: "Tightness in capacity enables motor carriers to have pricing power, not necessarily diesel."

What’s driving the cycle is industrial demand, not retail. "What’s been driving this market is not consumer retail. It is largely industrial," Fuller said. June will be another inflection point. Produce, construction, and industrial production stack on top of each other, and that’s before peak season’s container surge hits the inland network. Strickland called April a seasonal trough, not a turning point: "April is historically a weak month. You end up in May with a massive acceleration."

Then there’s the Roadcheck wrinkle. CVSA International Roadcheck runs May 12 through 14, and Fuller expects rejections to spike to the 16% to 17% range during the enforcement window. "Drivers know that the DOT is getting directives to really crack down, so I think we’re going to see more capacity taken off the road," he said. Strickland added that with virtually no excess capacity in the market, even small disruptions are amplified. The 2025 Roadcheck produced an 18.1% vehicle out-of-service rate. A repeat in a tighter market is the difference between a manageable week and a panic week for shippers running spot freight.

Beyond enforcement, Fuller flagged broker liability and compliance crackdowns as the summer’s biggest structural story, with English-language requirements and non-domiciled CDL scrutiny capable of eventually pulling 600,000 to 800,000 drivers from the pool. Strickland said rate pressure is already in motion: "We’re already at about a 10% increase, and we’re going to see that grow throughout the year."

So What? Carriers have pricing power for the first time since the pandemic peak. Shippers should treat current spot levels as the floor, not the ceiling, and lock capacity in core lanes before Roadcheck week. If your 2026 budget assumes 2024 rate benchmarks, rebuild it before June.

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Top Stories

Traffix sees double-digit rate hikes through 2026, even in its bear case

Traffix’s Q2 2026 Market Update calls the cycle clearly. March volumes ran roughly 8% above last year, the LMI Transportation Price Index hit its highest level since 2022, and the LMI capacity index dropped below 40. Linehaul rates excluding fuel are up about 30% year over year, and tender rejections have held above 10% for more than two months. "Current market levels should be treated as a new floor, not a temporary spike," the report stresses. Traffix’s Alex Fuller told FreightWaves shippers should expect 20% rate inflation broadly in 2026, with some lanes running 30% higher.

So What? Even Traffix’s softer scenario puts shippers at 7% to 12% transportation inflation versus 2025. The base case is 10% to 15%. Spot-heavy networks, reefer, and short-haul lanes carry the most upside risk.

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Trans-Pacific spot rates climb on Hormuz blockade as demand stays soft

Asia-U.S. West Coast spot rates rose 1% to $2,675 per FEU and East Coast prices climbed 3% to $3,939 per FEU, according to the Freightos Baltic Index. Both lanes are well above October lows even though peak season hasn’t started. The driver isn’t demand; it’s the U.S. – Iran blockade of the Strait of Hormuz keeping bunker costs elevated. "Increased fuel costs from the Strait of Hormuz closure continues to keep container rates elevated during the post-Lunar New Year, pre-peak season, low demand season for ocean freight," said Freightos Research Head Judah Levine. Asia-Europe is moving the other way, with Maersk pulling a planned GRI and announcing more blanked sailings.

So What? Levine warned the next big rate move could come during June or July’s peak, but rising fuel-driven consumer prices could damp shipper expectations and depress peak volumes. Importers should plan for elevated trans-Pacific rates through summer regardless of demand signals.

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Roadcheck is 12 days out, and a documented brake defect just cost one carrier $77,000

CVSA International Roadcheck runs May 12 through 14, with the driver focus on ELD tampering and the vehicle focus on cargo securement. The 2025 blitz produced 56,178 inspections, an 18.1% vehicle out-of-service rate, and 5.9% driver out-of-service rate. Brakes again topped the list at 24.4% of vehicle OOS findings. Rob Carpenter spotlights a separate audit case where a brake defect was logged on consecutive DVIRs for a month while the vehicle kept running loads. FMCSA assessed a daily civil penalty for the entire window, totaling $77,000. The reporting system worked. The repair workflow did not.

So What? If your DVIR feeds a filing cabinet instead of a maintenance queue with named owners and timelines, you’re documenting your own liability. Walk equipment for cargo securement and brake condition this week, and audit the last 30 days of DVIRs for unresolved defects.

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Aurora and Hirschbach sign MOU for 500 driverless trucks, deliveries start 2027

Aurora Innovation (NASDAQ: AUR) and Hirschbach Motor Lines expanded their partnership Thursday with an MOU outlining the path to 500 Aurora Driver-powered trucks, with deliveries beginning in 2027. A binding deal is expected to close later this year. Hirschbach, which runs roughly 2,948 power units per FMCSA SAFER data, will subscribe to Aurora’s Driver as a Service model and own the assets while Aurora supplies the virtual driver. Aurora has already delivered more than 2,000 loads totaling over 800,000 miles for Hirschbach on the Fort Worth-to-Phoenix lane. The hybrid network will assign autonomous trucks to longer Sun Belt routes while keeping company drivers on shorter, home-daily lanes.

So What? Hirschbach CEO Richard Stocking framed autonomy as both a growth lever and a quality-of-life investment. The 500-unit commitment translates to an estimated 500 million driverless miles and a multi-year revenue stream for Aurora valued in the hundreds of millions.

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From the Research Desk

What We’re Watching

▸ Roadcheck week, May 12 through 14. Fuller expects rejections to spike to 16% to 17% during enforcement. With excess capacity already gone, even a one-week capacity pull will send spot rates higher. Lock loads in core lanes before May 12.

▸ Diesel direction (DTS.USA). Retail diesel is up 41% since March 2 on Iran-related fuel volatility. Watch how the Hormuz blockade evolves. A sustained spike pulls fuel surcharges higher across both truckload and ocean lanes.

▸ Cross-border momentum into Mexico. Traffix flagged Laredo-Bajio as a tightening corridor, with U.S.-Mexico capacity facing localized constraints. If nearshoring volume accelerates as expected, southbound and Mexican domestic rates run hotter than national averages through summer.

That’s your Daily for today. See you tomorrow.

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