Fourth Quarter Trucking Report: Analyzing the Peak Season

Thursday, October 30th at 2:00pm EDT

Trucking’s “peak” season traditionally ran from Labor Day through Thanksgiving, when holiday goods needed to be in stores for Black Friday sales. That schedule has been upended and extended over the past decade by e-commerce and now by fluctuations in freight scheduling caused by US tariffs. The peak now may run beyond the holidays and into January, though the extended shipping season is sometimes less “peaky.” The fourth quarter for trucking this year looks more like a bump in the road than a peak, with excess capacity and weak demand for both truckload and less-than-truckload (LTL) service. But what are the chances for a “November surprise”? Will consumers prove resilient in the face of economic uncertainty and increase their spending? Will they change how and where they spend in a search for greater value? Or will they cut back? How much of an increase in demand is needed to shrink retail inventories to the point of replenishment? Are factories using up raw materials at a pace that could spark higher demand for inputs? On the supply side, will tighter enforcement of truck driver licensing laws finally reduce excess capacity and lead to spot market rate hikes in late 2025 or early 2026? Are there signs in this year’s trucking peak of a market inflection in 2026? This webcast will examine all of these questions and more as shippers plan their transportation strategies for the new year and beyond.

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