| Enterprise trucking insights delivered — the week’s biggest stories in trucking, freight law, safety and the spot market. |
| ● ON THE WIRE |
FRI · SEP 4 · 2026 |
5 STORIES |
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TRUCKING · EQUIPMENT / CLASS 8
BY NOI MAHONEY · LOADED AND ROLLING · SEP 3, 2026
North American Class 8 orders totaled 18,200 units in August — down 19% from July but up 42% year-over-year — closing out an order season that ran 39% ahead of the prior year at 350,677 units. FTR’s Dan Moyer says August effectively marks the end of the EPA 2027 NOx pre-buy, while used Class 8 retail sales slipped 2.5% in July even as they stayed 45% above last year.
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THE TAKE —
FTR pegs the cost of EPA 2027 compliance at $6,000–$7,000 per engine for noncompliant units and $8,000–$12,000 for fully compliant ones, and fleets should expect that to land directly in new-truck pricing. With the pre-buy window now closing, carriers who haven’t locked in 2026-spec equipment are running out of time to beat those cost increases.
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TRUCKING · CAPACITY (LMI)
The Logistics Managers’ Index measured transportation capacity at 40 in August — still contracting, but 11.6 points slower than July and the mildest pullback in six months. Transportation pricing jumped to 90 and utilization hit 70.6, only the second time in five years it has topped 70, while retailers reported inventory growth of 61.9 as they rebuild for Q4.
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THE TAKE —
A slower rate of capacity loss isn’t the same as capacity returning — pricing and utilization both climbing alongside it says the market is simply absorbing tightness rather than easing it. Shippers should read the Q4 inventory rebuild as a signal to lock capacity commitments now, before retailer restocking adds more pressure to an already-utilized network.
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TRUCKING · MARKET CYCLE
SONAR data shows accepted truckload volumes have gone nowhere for two years while tender rejections have tripled — volume levels comparable to 2019, but with rejection rates more than double what they were then. Q2 earnings showed no evidence of fleet growth, with most carriers reporting fewer active units year-over-year, pointing to a cycle driven by capacity leaving the market rather than demand surging into it.
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THE TAKE —
A supply-driven tightening behaves differently than a demand-driven one — it doesn’t reverse just because freight volumes stay flat, since the fix requires capacity to come back rather than demand to cool. Carriers with available equipment are in a stronger negotiating position than volume numbers alone would suggest, and shippers should price that in rather than waiting for a volume-driven softening that may not come.
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TRUCKING · LTL EARNINGS
Old Dominion’s daily revenue rose 12.4% year-over-year in August, accelerating from July’s 8.2% gain, with yield up roughly 13% including fuel surcharges. But tonnage fell 0.9% y/y as daily shipments declined 2.4%, even as weight per shipment ticked up 1.7% — leaving the carrier’s growth still driven more by pricing than by volume.
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THE TAKE —
Old Dominion posting double-digit revenue growth on shrinking shipment counts confirms the LTL pricing environment remains a seller’s market — shippers negotiating LTL contracts should expect carriers to keep pushing rate even where their own volumes are flat or down, since yield, not tonnage, is what’s carrying results right now.
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FUEL · DIESEL MARKETS
Ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures on the CME settled Tuesday at $4.6773 a gallon, up more than 18 cents on the day and past the prior post-war high of $4.6084 set in March — now the second-highest settlement in the contract’s history behind the 2022 spike tied to the Ukraine invasion. The move comes on lost Middle East crude suited to diesel production, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, and thin global inventories heading into winter.
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THE TAKE —
Unlike the 2022 spike, which traders attributed largely to a short squeeze, this run-up is tied to real supply losses that aren’t obviously temporary — refining capacity taken offline doesn’t come back on a trader’s timeline. Fleets budgeting fuel surcharges off recent averages should build in more headroom than usual heading into winter, when diesel demand typically rises anyway.
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SONAR MARKET DATA
SONAR Spotlight: Spot Rates Snap a Seven-Week Slide
The National Truckload Index (Linehaul Only), NTIL.USA, sits at $2.48 per mile, up 0.40% — about a penny — on the day and up 9 cents from a week ago. It’s a small move in dollar terms but a real one in direction: the first higher weekly reading since the early-July peak, ending a seven-week slide that had pulled the index down more than 60 cents. The NTIL now sits 26 cents above the $2.22 trailing-year average, having bounced before it ever reached the $2.25 spring plateau that looked like its next test. Diving into the data, the NTIL sat near $1.75 from August into late November before its first climb, reaching roughly $2.20 by mid-January. It chopped between $2.00 and $2.25 through winter and spring, then broke hard in May to crest above $3.00 in late June. The seven-week retreat ran $2.78, $2.71, $2.64, $2.55, $2.53, $2.45, $2.39 — then turned this week to $2.48. The rebound arrived just as the index neared the low end of the descent, and the chart shows the line curling up off its trendline rather than continuing to grind lower. To calculate the NTIL, fuel costs are based on the average retail price of diesel and an assumed fuel efficiency of 6.5 miles per gallon. The formula is NTID – (DTS.USA / 6.5). Looking ahead, one up week doesn’t undo two down months, and it’s too early to call a bottom off a single 9-cent print. But the supply story that drove the spring rally never reversed — Cass still shows shipments down year over year on tighter capacity, and enforcement keeps thinning noncompliant trucks from the market — so a floor forming in the mid-$2.40s would fit a market that overshot on the way up and again on the way down. Watch whether the index builds on the bounce or fades back toward $2.40. Contract rates lag spot by a couple of weeks, so if spot has turned, the relief won’t show up in renewals until later this month.
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PODCAST
Loaded and Rolling, the podcast
Catch the newest episode of the Loaded and Rolling podcast, where Steve Oliver of Taylor and Martin joins the team to break down what’s new in the used truck market — brought to you by EROAD.
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UPCOMING EVENT
OCT 27–28, 2026 · THE SIGNAL AT CHATTANOOGA CHOO CHOO · CHATTANOOGA, TN
Your team works hard every day to keep supply chains moving. Send them to F3: Future of Freight Festival to get ahead of market trends and regulatory shifts, experience the latest FreightTech insights that directly impact your margins, and expand high-value relationships with supply chain leaders spanning the industry.
1,000+ supply chain leaders in attendance
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LOADED AND ROLLING — ENTERPRISE TRUCKING INSIGHTS DELIVERED — PUBLISHED WEEKLY
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