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The Daily
The five minutes that makes you the most informed person in freight today.
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Lead Story · Credit
By John Kingston
XPO now has an investment-grade rating. Fitch Ratings upgraded the LTL carrier to BBB-, one notch above the line between investment-grade and non-investment-grade debt, making it the first of the three major agencies to put XPO on the investment-grade side. Moody’s and S&P Global each raised XPO a notch a few months ago, but their equivalent grades, Ba1 and BB+, still sit just below the cutoff.
Debt paydown drove the call. XPO repaid more than $1 billion of debt in the nine months ended Sept. 30, up from $50 million a year earlier. Fitch forecasts free cash flow of about $500 million in both 2026 and 2027, up from roughly $270 million in 2025, and expects leverage in the low 2.0x range this year, down from 2.8x. The upgrade reflects "structural improvement in XPO’s business and cash flows at a pace above the industry," Fitch said.
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BBB-
new Fitch rating, up from BB+
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$1B+
debt repaid in the first nine months of 2026
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~$500M
Fitch’s 2026 free cash flow forecast
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The operating numbers back it up. Third-quarter revenue rose 12.4% to $2.37 billion, net income climbed to $181 million from $82 million and the adjusted operating ratio improved to 80.1% from 82.7%. Fitch also struck an upbeat note on the sector after years of gloomy trucking reports, saying it expects LTL profitability "to be resilient through business cycles" because asset-based networks are hard to replicate and large carriers have priced more rationally than the truckload market.
The gap with weaker peers is wide. Fitch rates Forward Air at B with a negative outlook, five notches below XPO. For shippers, that spread separates carriers with room to keep investing in their networks from those still working down debt. Fitch named what could reverse course: a large dividend or an M&A strategy that restricts financial flexibility.
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Why it matters
Fitch’s stable outlook means it doesn’t expect to move XPO’s rating soon. A matching upgrade from Moody’s or S&P would give XPO investment-grade status at a second agency.
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| Top Stories |
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About 140 engineers and conductors walked off the job Wednesday, according to the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen, which says the railroad’s use of managers as conductors violates its contract and a federal court order dating to 2013. The union calls it a "major dispute" under the Railway Labor Act that permits an immediate strike. FTAI Infrastructure bought the 840-mile regional for $1.05 billion in 2025; W&LE management had not commented.
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Why it matters
The walkout threatens a regional freight link serving steel mills and other industrial customers across a four-state network from Maryland to Toledo, Ohio.
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Read more → |
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Sponsored · Quantix
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The group surfaced in October, said Ben Wilkens, cybersecurity director at the National Motor Freight Traffic Association, and has targeted fleets large and small. Employees have since filed proposed class actions against all three companies in federal courts in Arkansas, Florida and Illinois, alleging they failed to protect personal data. Ransom demands run $5 million for J.B. Hunt, $10 million for Echo and $20 million for Ryder. J.B. Hunt says its systems remain operational.
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Why it matters
Only the Echo suit alleges customer and carrier data was taken, citing records tied to 2,418 customers and 9,122 carriers. No operational disruption has been reported at any of the three.
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Read more → |
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Ford CEO Jim Farley expects commodities, memory and logistics costs to add roughly $2 billion in year-over-year costs. Union Pacific’s Jim Vena called higher fuel prices "naturally an advantage" for rail, though fuel added 140 basis points to UP’s third-quarter operating ratio. XPO cut outsourced miles to 5.6%, and Valero said shipping crude from the Gulf Coast to Asia now costs $30-$35 a barrel, up from about $5 a year ago.
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Why it matters
Executives framed freight costs as more than a margin risk. They are reshaping where companies buy, how they move goods and which markets they can serve.
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SONAR counts about 362,000 tractors at one-to-six-truck carriers, down from nearly 398,000 in early 2023. Adam Wingfield’s analysis of FMCSA census data shows many of those trucks are still running under someone else’s authority. The leased share of tractors climbs from 6.9% for owner-operators to 31.6% for 20-to-100-truck fleets. Record diesel, at $6.127 a gallon the week of Nov. 9, hits spot carriers hardest because they rarely get a fuel surcharge.
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Why it matters
Capacity is consolidating into mid-sized fleets that can absorb six-dollar diesel, which makes it stickier. For owner-operators, the question is whether to stay in trucking alone.
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Read more → |
| FreightWaves Today · Live at 12PM ET |
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Brought to you by Samsara. Built with operators, for operators. Blind spots cause some of fleets’ costliest, most complex collisions. Learn how AI-powered 360-degree visibility helps you spot risks in real time and protect drivers, pedestrians, and cyclists. Download the Guide.
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Guest |
Role |
| 12:00 |
Jeremy Reymer |
Founder, Project 61 |
Thanks to our sponsors: Highway · Love’s · OTR Solutions · Pallet · Premier Trailer Leasing · RXO · Trinity Rail · Motorcity Systems · Descartes · Saia · Centerline · 123LoadBoard · PACCAR · Lean Solutions Group · SmartKargo · SONAR
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| Sponsored Insight |
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| From the Research Desk |
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In partnership with CargoWise Landside
A FreightWaves survey of drayage operators on the challenges limiting growth, where they’re investing in automation and why digital tools are becoming essential to scale without adding cost.
Download the report → |
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In partnership with Werner
Shippers of high-value and mission-critical freight on compliance failures, visibility gaps and carrier performance, and why accountability now tops their list.
Download the report → |
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In partnership with Trimble
Carriers, brokers, shippers and owner-operators on where they’re adopting AI agents today, what’s slowing implementation and how they weigh autonomy against human oversight.
Download the report → |
| From Our Partners |
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Courtesy of Infios
Infios research on how the 2025 tariff environment made transport mode a tariff decision and turned tariff exposure from a fixed cost into a managed variable.
Read the research → |
| Watch on FreightWaves TV |
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How Radar applies AI to fleet data analysis.
▶ Watch now |
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Why intermodal rail volumes are running at record levels.
▶ Watch now |
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A look at the jump in spot rates and rail volumes at their highs.
▶ Watch now |
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| What We’re Watching |
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XPO’s other ratings
Moody’s (Ba1) and S&P Global (BB+) each sit one notch below investment grade. Watch whether either follows Fitch.
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Wheeling & Lake Erie strike
BLET says crews will stay out until management follows the 2013 court order. Watch for W&LE’s response and any court action.
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Whitearmor fallout
Suits seeking class-action status are pending in three federal districts. Watch whether Echo publicly acknowledges the breach.
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That’s your Daily. See you tomorrow.
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