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A Second Group of Importers Can Now File Under CAPE Phase 3: Trade attorneys got word this week that a second group of importers can finally move on CAPE refund claims. The group in question: importers whose importer of record (IOR) number landed with CBP after last July’s cutoff, who’d been stuck waiting since Phase 3 opened to everyone else on October 6. |
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Those who filed before July 30 have had declaration access since Phase 3 opened. This round simply catches up the importers whose paperwork came in afterward. |
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Access alone doesn’t produce a refund. Everyone in this new round still has to submit a declaration and get it past CBP review, the same hurdle the first group cleared. |
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Flexport’s trade compliance team has heard from clients about unsolicited emails referencing specific Phase 3 dates and urging immediate action. Treat anything like that with suspicion, and confirm it through CBP directly or through a broker before responding. |
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Anyone newly eligible should loop in counsel now, since CBP hasn’t indicated how long this expanded filing window will remain open. |
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Gellert Global Group Brings the First Court Challenge to the Section 338 Canada Duties: A company called Gellert Global Group just became the test case for Section 338, a Depression-era tariff tool that had never actually been used until Trump pointed it at Canada over provincial liquor restrictions, the country’s dairy supply management setup, and vehicle import quotas. Its attorneys at the Liberty Justice Center filed suit at the Court of International Trade (CIT) on October 20, seeking class certification so the ruling could cover other similarly situated importers, not just Gellert itself. |
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The timing is notable: just over a week before this filing, the Liberty Justice Center publicly said it had no plaintiff yet and wasn’t preparing to sue over Section 338 anytime soon. |
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The group has a track record here. It represented five businesses in last year’s IEEPA tariff fight, where a restraining order request failed early on, but the broader challenge ultimately won when the Supreme Court found IEEPA never authorized those tariffs to begin with. |
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If the court grants class treatment, the ruling’s reach would extend well past Gellert Global Group itself, similar to the scope questions already being litigated in the separate IEEPA refund cases at the CIT. |
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Importers currently paying Section 338 duties on Canadian goods should watch how the court rules on class certification. That decision will determine whether relief requires joining this case or filing a separate one. |
TRANS-PACIFIC EASTBOUND (TPEB)
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Carriers continue to deploy close to full capacity, using targeted blank sailings to manage space as the peak season ends. |
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Capacity is expected to stay fully deployed through November. |
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Demand is cooling, with November U.S. import arrivals forecast to drop 11% compared with October. |
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Port congestion in East China has eased as recovery from recent typhoon disruption continues, though intermittent delays remain possible. |
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Spot rates have held flat for the past month, and index readings were mixed last week, moving within 3% in either direction. |
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Market signals point to downward pressure building now that Golden Week has passed. |
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Recommendation: Shippers should expect softer rate conditions into November, with demand likely to rebuild ahead of Lunar New Year shipping in late December and January. |
FAR EAST WESTBOUND (FEWB)
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Carriers are deploying full capacity through early November. |
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Blank sailings are set to increase from mid-November, removing 8-11% of scheduled capacity in the weeks of November 9 through November 23. |
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Demand is softening after the summer peak, so these cuts reflect carriers managing vessel utilization to protect rates, rather than a demand-driven space squeeze. |
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Recommendation: Shippers with mid-to-late November cargo should confirm space early. |
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Suez Canal Return: The return to Suez routing is shortening transit times on a growing share of Asia-Europe services. The shift is happening service by service, so shippers who need faster transit should confirm routing per sailing. |
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Rates to Northern Europe rose 6% and rates to the Mediterranean rose 3% last week, after easing from July through early October. |
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Carriers have announced further rate increases for the first half of November. |
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Added Suez capacity makes it uncertain whether these increases will hold. |
TRANS-ATLANTIC WESTBOUND (TAWB)
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Carriers are deploying most capacity, with blank sailings of about 5-9% on selective Northern Europe-to-U.S. loops through mid-November. |
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Space remains tight, with Hapag-Lloyd rejecting urgent bookings and MSC the only carrier guaranteeing space, at higher prices. |
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Spot rates have risen since late September and are up about 25% year over year, though October increases are only partly in effect and the latest weekly index is flat to slightly down. |
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Elevated fuel costs are supporting rate levels. |
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A Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) for West Mediterranean lanes is already in effect. |
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Recommendation: Shippers should expect rates to stay elevated through year-end. |
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Schedule reliability is about 73%, with port congestion at Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Bremerhaven, and low water on the Rhine. |
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Recommendation: Shippers should add a buffer of 7 to 10 days for U.S. East Coast arrivals. |
INDIAN SUBCONTINENT TO NORTH AMERICA
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To the U.S. East Coast: Carriers are adding capacity through late October and early November, and space has become more available on the main corridor from Northwest India. |
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Congestion has been improving at Nhava Sheva (India’s largest container port, near Mumbai), Mundra (in Gujarat, Northwest India), and Colombo (Sri Lanka’s main transshipment hub), which raises rollover risk for cargo originating in Pakistan, Bangladesh, or Southeast India that relies on these connections. |
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The Diwali holiday, starting November 8, is the main swing factor for the rest of the quarter. A pre-holiday export rush could stabilize rates; without one, the current trend of downward pressure on cost is likely to continue. |
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Recommendation: Shippers with cargo ready before Diwali should book as soon as possible. |
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To the U.S. East Coast: Rates continue to ease from recent peak levels. Direct services are easing faster than routings that depend on feeder vessels from Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh, where feeder capacity remains constrained. |
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To the U.S. West Coast: Rates are flat, as transshipment constraints in East Asia limit available space. |
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TPEB peak season starts as demand and fuel costs push China-to-U.S. air rates higher. |
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China-to-U.S. demand kept climbing this week, marking the start of true peak season, with rates rising week over week for the second consecutive week. |
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Electronics and AI-related equipment are the main cargo drivers. Rates are expected to hold or rise through the rest of the week. |
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China-to-Europe demand is also increasing on general cargo. Rates rose this week, with a further increase expected in the second half of the week. |
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South China (HKG/SZX/CAN): |
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China-to-U.S. rates rose again week over week on ecommerce and transpacific cargo. Space is fully booked through the end of the week. |
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China-to-Europe demand edged up after Martinair (MP) canceled flights linked to the Middle East conflict, keeping rates on a slight upward trend. |
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U.S.-bound space is full. Rates are rising with fuel costs and carrier pricing. |
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Europe-bound capacity has tightened compared with recent weeks. Book 5 to 7 days ahead to secure space. |
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U.S.-bound demand stays high on high-tech and manufacturing components, and capacity is full. Rates are set to increase on higher fuel costs. |
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Europe-bound demand is stable, though rates are expected to rise as well. Book at least 5 to 7 days before cargo ready date to lock in transit times with airlines. |
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Demand rose compared with last week. U.S. East Coast capacity remains relatively loose because co-loaders are oversupplying space, while LAX is tighter and direct LAX rates rose. |
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On JFK/EWR, YP and UA both operate the route and have raised rates above last week’s levels. |
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The Europe lane is full of cosmetics cargo. Book direct options about 1.5 weeks ahead. |
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Hub congestion continues to disrupt U.S.-bound lanes while export volumes stay steady. U.S.-bound rates held, and Europe-bound rates softened slightly. |
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Book 5 to 7 days before departure to secure space and limit transit delays. |
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Congestion at major transit hubs continues to affect U.S.-bound lanes. Export volumes are steady, and rates are largely stable, with Europe-bound rates easing slightly. |
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Confirm bookings at least 5 to 7 days before departure. |
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India (BOM/DEL/MAA/BLR): |
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Freighter cancellations at BOM continue during a runway revamp. Some freighters moved to NMI, where operational problems caused further cancellations. |
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Demand is shifting to AMD and BLR, which are now congested. Terminal congestion at Mumbai and Chennai is delaying shipment handovers. |
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Shippers are converting ocean shipments to air on India-to-U.S. lanes. Book 5 days ahead. |
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Indian Subcontinent (Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan): |
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Bangladesh: Europe-bound schedules are reliable with space available. The U.S. lane is tight and less reliable. |
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Sri Lanka: All carriers except MU and CX are on schedule. Middle East-based carriers are short on space because perishable volumes are rising. |
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Pakistan: Space is tight, and rates stayed elevated. Book 3 to 5 days ahead. |
(Source: Flexport)
Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts on your shipments.
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