THE DAILY

Wednesday, April 8, 2026

The five minutes that make you the most informed person in freight today

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The Daily

LMI logs steepest freight pricing growth since March 2022 as capacity contracts for fourth straight month

The Logistics Managers’ Index is flashing conditions last seen at the height of the COVID freight boom, but this time, the supply side is being constricted by regulatory enforcement.

March’s LMI returned a transportation capacity reading of 39.2 and a transportation pricing reading of 89.4. The 50.2-percentage-point gap between the two was “the highest positive inversion since November 2021,” the Tuesday report said. Capacity stepped 1.8 points lower in March, marking a fourth consecutive month of contraction. Pricing jumped 12.7 points to its fastest growth rate since March 2022. The back half of March told the real story: pricing surged from 81.9 in the first two weeks to 94 in the last two weeks, while capacity fell from 44.4 to 36 over the same period.

Two forces are driving this. The Iran war gets partial credit for the pricing spike. But heightened regulatory enforcement — English-language proficiency requirements, non-domiciled CDL restrictions, a crackdown on ELD providers, and forced driver school closures — has significantly drawn down available truck capacity. SONAR’s Outbound Tender Rejection Index confirms the tightening: OTRI sits at 14.80%, and the National Truckload Index (linehaul only) is running at $2.24 per mile. Spot rates stepped higher through peak season as the regulatory constraints on the driver pool took hold and severe winter weather compounded the tighter backdrop. Rates are still notably higher on a year-over-year comparison in April.

The inventory picture adds another wrinkle. Inventory levels (54.8) were up just 1 point in March as companies have returned to just-in-time strategies. “With the current leanness of inventories, firms will not have large stores of goods and components to draw on, which may necessitate some continued movement in freight,” the report noted. “The leanness extends to fleet sizes as well, which have right-sized considerably since 2022, meaning there will be less excess capacity this time around.” Inventory costs (76.2) accelerated 8.4 points from February, and aggregate logistics costs hit 233 — the highest reading since May 2022, approaching the 240 threshold the LMI defines as a “highly inflationary” environment.

Logistics managers surveyed don’t expect relief. Future readings came back at 34.9 for capacity, 93 for pricing, and 67.9 for utilization. The report put it plainly: shippers are stuck between “a rock and a hard place” as tariffs have forced more selective inventory decisions, while higher fuel costs push them to consolidate loads. “The transportation market seems to be booming and inventories are lean,” the report said.

So What? Small shippers are hardest hit: the LMI pricing reading for companies under 1,000 employees hit 92.7, or 8 points above large-company sentiment. With fleet sizes right-sized and capacity still contracting, there’s no buffer. If you’re a shipper and your contract rates were negotiated against last year’s soft market, budget for a very different Q2 than Q1.

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Top Stories

US rail posts best month in years as chemicals set records, grain hits 33-year high

March 2026 delivered the strongest monthly performance for U.S. freight rail in years, according to Association of American Railroads data. Total carloads averaged 230,401 per week — the highest March result since 2019 and the strongest monthly average since October 2022 — with year-over-year carloads up 1.7% and Q1 carloads reaching 2.68 million units, up 4.2% from a year ago. Grain originations topped 97,000 carloads, a 10.3% year-over-year gain and the highest Q1 figure since 1993. Chemical shipments reached a record weekly average of 35,580 carloads, up 5.5%. Twelve of 20 major carload categories posted year-over-year gains, and carloads excluding coal averaged 171,338 per week — the strongest March level since 2008. The ISM Manufacturing PMI reached 52.7% in March, its highest reading in more than three years.

So What? The breadth of improvement — 12 of 20 categories gaining, records in chemicals, Q1 grain volumes unseen since 1993 — points to genuine economic rebalancing, not isolated restocking. For intermodal shippers, rail is recovering without having repriced to match the truck market’s move. That window won’t stay open long.

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Four defendants sentenced to 99 months in USPS trucking contract bribery scheme

Four defendants in a bribery scheme involving U.S. Postal Service trucking contractors were sentenced to a combined 99 months in federal prison, the U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Texas announced Tuesday. USPS Senior Network Analyst Zechariah Yi of Aurora, Colorado, and USPS employee Tai Ryoung Rho, also of Aurora, solicited and received approximately $1.5 million in kickbacks from trucking company owners in exchange for help obtaining USPS service contracts worth roughly $15 million over a six-year period beginning in 2015. The beneficiaries: Wan Jin Yoon, who owned Assured Trucking Inc. and Postal Box Inc., and Hong Jin Yoon of Denver, who owned JY Logistics. Yi received 42 months; Rho drew 30 months; Wan Yoon received 24 months; Hong Yoon received 3 months. The defendants also agreed to forfeit two vehicles and more than $300,000 in cash. “At the expense of the integrity and fairness of the government contracting process, these defendants resorted to bribery and corruption simply to line their own pockets,” said U.S. Attorney Ryan Raybould.

So What? Fifteen million dollars in federal postal contracts, steered to connected carriers over six years while legitimate operators competed on price and service. The USPS OIG and FBI both assisted — a signal that federal enforcement of government freight contracting integrity is active and multi-agency.

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Mexico truckers’ nationwide strike stretches into second day as some groups fracture from blockades

Mexico’s nationwide trucker and farmer strike stretched into its second day Tuesday, with highway blockades sustaining congestion around Mexico City and continued disruption to key freight corridors across the country. Protests spread across 13 to 16 states — including Veracruz, Michoacán, Chihuahua, Sinaloa, Tamaulipas and Baja California — with truckers using tractor-trailers to block highways and intermittently allow traffic through. The strike is showing signs of fracture: ANTAC and allied groups suspended blockades pending federal talks, while several major trucking and business organizations called for dialogue over direct action, creating uncertainty around how long the freight disruptions will persist.

So What? Tamaulipas and Baja California are the states to watch — both are directly tied to Texas and California port-of-entry traffic. Road closures remain in corridors linking the State of Mexico with Mexico City, If federal talks stall and blockades resume, expect extended lead times on northbound cross-border freight through the week.

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International, PlusAI and Ryder go live on Temple-to-Laredo with 100% on-time, 92% autonomous coverage

International, PlusAI and Ryder have moved autonomous trucking from the test track to live freight operations on the Temple-to-Laredo corridor. The trial, launched in November 2025, puts International LT series trucks powered by PlusAI’s SuperDrive 6.0 virtual driver software into Ryder’s supply chain on a lane known for heavy construction and tight HOS windows. Early results: 100% on-time delivery and 92% autonomous route coverage.

Amisha Vadalia, who does commercialization at PlusAI, said “All the feedback we were hearing from fleets like Ryder is that this is a very difficult lane. It is a perfect demonstration of why autonomous technology is going to be beneficial for the industry.”

Seth deVlugt at Ryder Ventures added that “There is nothing manufactured at the beginning or the end. This is real freight that was there before.” International set up its own DOT-licensed for-hire sub-entity with professional safety drivers in the cab on every run. International expects a fully certified driver-out platform by end of 2027. Vadalia: “It is a matter of months as opposed to five years out like we have talked about in the past.”

So What? Ryder entered the pilot to prove the tech, check the economics and map the support services needed at scale. “They passed,” deVlugt confirmed. 100% on-time on a hard lane is the kind of data that accelerates procurement conversations with other large fleets.

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From the Research Desk

What We’re Watching

▸ How close aggregate logistics costs get to the 240 “highly inflationary” threshold. The LMI overall hit 233 in March — the highest since May 2022. Future pricing expectations are sitting at 93. Watch April’s LMI for whether the capacity-pricing inversion deepens or stabilizes, particularly as tariff policy continues shifting.

▸ Whether the Mexico truckers’ strike holds together or fully fractures. ANTAC has pulled back pending federal talks, but localized blockades continue. Tamaulipas and Baja California border crossings are the ones to watch for northbound cross-border freight. Any deterioration in talks could put Texas and California port-of-entry volumes under pressure through the week.

▸ The PlusAI-Ryder-International I-35 pilot at the 90-day mark. Early data is strong: 100% on-time, 92% autonomous coverage on a lane known for construction and tight HOS windows. The 30- and 90-day reliability numbers are what establish commercial credibility for the broader sector. International has its eye on a fully certified, driver-out vehicle platform by end of 2027.

That’s your Daily for today. See you tomorrow.

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