Summary: Like taking a nap after eating excessive Thanksgiving turkey, nationwide outbound tender rejection rates took a snooze as drivers returned to work and truckload capacity increased. Outbound tender rejection rates followed a trend similar to last year’s, with an upward movement followed by what appears to be a similar downward movement.
In the past week, OTRI fell 37 basis points from 6.79% on Nov. 24 to 6.42%. Despite the decline, OTRI is performing slightly better than last year, up 15 basis points compared to 6.27% in 2024. Looking ahead, according to SONAR’s Seasonally Adjusted Moving Average (SAMA) feature, OTRI is forecasted to continue its decline to 6.01% by Dec. 9 before a holiday surge to 8.95% by Dec. 22.
Looking ahead to the Christmas holiday, the extent of peak season hinges on freight volumes. Truckload volumes should become clearer by the end of the week as shippers resume operations and outbound tender volumes resume. The period leading up to Thanksgiving saw a seasonal surge in the newly released SONAR Truckload Volume Index (STVI) followed by a rapid dip for the holiday. Where STVI settles in the days ahead will give a good indication of whether truckload carriers can capitalize on demand surges or if excess capacity will continue to weigh on their pricing power. At the moment, spot market conditions are in a much better position than the contract space.