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Overall: Many economic data points showed strength and improvement in September; the US bond market and fuel prices are the two key areas to watch.
Labor Market Good. The labor market provided a wave of good news in September. Most sectors were hiring, wage growth was still above 3% annually, job openings expanded, the unemployment rate remained steady (and historically low despite workers coming back into the workforce), and the quits rate was healthy. All of these are strong signals of a consumer that is able to work if they want to, which also often translates into strong consumer spending despite fickle, low consumer sentiment.
Data Center Boom Continues. Despite headlines from moratoriums, data center construction is pushing toward $85B in annual construction spending with its next stop above $135B in 2027. But when indirect economic impacts are included, it is now accounting for more than 50% of the US economic growth rate. More than $130B in new “greenfield” projects are caught up in moratoriums, but they will eventually “release” (60% of those projects are not “latency-dependent”, they are not anchored to a specific city – they can go anywhere and eventually will).
But Housing Remains Stalled. The residential housing sector is an important growth category for LTL. But interest rates for most new mortgages just moved above 7.3% and that will keep many new buyers out of the market (and many existing owners with sub-3% mortgages remaining in their current home). And yet, pockets of growth continue in areas with high population and corporate relocation rates (many Sunbelt states and regions) which has pushed new starts to 918,000 units in 2026, slightly ahead of historical levels and up 5.2% Y/Y.
Link to Full Edition: LTL Monthly Executive Briefing PDF
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