Supply Chain Intelligence Brief

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TRUCKING

Trucking contracts held hostage by ongoing uncertainty

Freight Waves Zach Strickland September 27, 2025

Long-term or contract rates for the dry van truckload market (VCRPM1) have lost momentum this year compared to last, falling a marginal 0.3% y/y as of early September. While this is still slower than the ~2% drop from 2023 to 2024, contract rates had started to show signs of upward pressure in the second half of last year.

USDOT cracks down on ‘non-domiciled’ CDLs, targets California

Journal of Commerce William B. Cassidy September 26, 2025 $Subscription Based

“Moving forward, non-citizens will not be eligible for a non-domiciled CDL (commercial driver’s license) unless they meet a much stricter set of rules, including an employment-based visa and undergoing a mandatory federal immigration status check,” USDOT said.

Emergency Rule Overhauls How States Issue Non-Domiciled CDLs

Heavy Duty Trucking Deborah Lockridge September 26, 2025

As the American Trucking Associations explained in a blog post reacting to the announcement, “a non-domiciled CDL is given to someone who is legally allowed to work in the U.S. but doesn’t permanently live in the state issuing the license — often foreign nationals working under temporary U.S. work authorization.

Link: FMCSA Press Release Secretary Sean P. Duffy Takes Emergency Action to Protect America’s Roads, Restrict Non-Domiciled CDLs

New truck tariff will spark ‘major increase in equipment costs’

CCJ Jason Cannon September 26, 2025

Jason Miller, Eli Broad Professor of Supply Chain Management at Michigan State University, said he was "very confident" the new tariff will override USMCA as the finished passenger vehicle tariffs now do. Mexico, the only country from which the U.S. imports finished on-highway heavy-duty trucks, accounted for 71.9% of heavy truck imports last year by dollar value, according to USA Trade Online.

Trucking Industry Still Facing Soaring Insurance Costs

Transport Topics Steve Brawner September 26, 2025

Matthew Payne, U.S. transportation practice leader for Lockton, which focuses primarily on insuring large fleets, said the rate environment has “calmed down to a degree this year,” noting that rate increases are significant but not as severe as they have been.

However, he said the current situation is not sustainable.

SHIPPERS / 3PLs

Nine categories drive double-digit ecommerce sales increases for Costco in fiscal Q4 2025

Digital Commerce 360 Abbas Haleem September 26, 2025

In Q4, Costco ecommerce sales grew 13.6% year over year. And in its fiscal 2025 as a whole, they grew 15.6%.

For its full fiscal 2025, Costco ecommerce sales exceeded $19.6 billion. Although that marks 15.6% year-over-year growth, it represents 7.26% of Costco total sales in its fiscal 2025.

What’s drawing Amazon sellers to Walmart’s fulfillment services

Modern Retail Mitchell Parton September 29, 2026

Walmart Fulfillment Services, which launched in February 2020, has grown over the past five years from a nascent service to become a more serious challenger to Fulfillment by Amazon.

As SCOTUS takes up broker liability Monday, new cases arise

Freight Waves John Kingston September 26, 2025

Even as two broker liability cases are sitting before the Supreme Court, with the nine justices scheduled to discuss Monday whether to take them up and settle conflicting lower court precedents, there are other cases decided in recent months that are filling up a landscape of precedents.

INDUSTRY

DHL executives forecast subdued but strategic 2025 Peak Season amid global trade shifts

Logistics Management Jeff Berman September 26, 2025

In terms of how Hewitt characterized Peak Season, Hewitt said he expects it to probably be more subdued than how it is historically, noting that DHL Express usually sees a 40%-to-50% lift from the third quarter into Peak Season, noting that is not the case this year and it will likely be closer to a 20%-to-25% lift.

LA port wants California to raise bridge to accommodate big ships

Journal of Commerce Bill Mongelluzzo September 26, 2025 $Subscription Based

The Port of Los Angeles and its industry stakeholders are trying to convince the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) to expand a key bridge project to allow ships up to 23,000 TEUs to call the other half of its terminals.

TECHNOLOGY

Walmart CEO Issues Wake-Up Call: ‘AI Is Going to Change Literally Every Job’

The Wall Street Journal Sarah Nassauer and Chip Cutter September 26, 2025

Inside Walmart, top executives have started to examine AI’s implications for its workforce in nearly every high-level planning meeting. Company leaders say they are tracking which job types decrease, increase and stay steady to gauge where additional training and preparation can help workers.

Developers heavily rely on AI for software development: Google

CIO Dive Lindsey Wilkinson September 26, 2025

Software development pros typically allot a median of two hours daily to working with AI. More than 3 in 5 technologists are “heavily relying” on the technology for their job, and just 5% report no reliance on AI, according to the report.

Link: Google DORA State of Assisted Software Development

SUSTAINABILITY / SAFETY / SECURITY

ESG Dive Diana DiGangi September 26, 2025

Per capita carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption fell in every state from 2005 to 2023, primarily due to less coal being burned, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a Sept. 15 report.

Link: Energy Information Administration Per capita energy-related CO2 emissions decreased in every state between 2005 and 2023