Morgan Stanly sees FMCSA roadside beacon waiver as a turning point in autonomous trucking
|
|
|
F3 Future of Freight autonomous thoughts
|
(Photo: Thomas Wasson/FreightWaves)
|
This week, I attended the FreightWaves F3 Future of Freight Festival as both a presenter and interviewer; it was held in Chattanooga, Tennessee. For Truck Tech readers, one of the big takeaways was the gathering interest in autonomy. This came from a conversation I led with a select group of shippers during a closed-door Shipper Day held on Monday, Oct. 20. Cargo theft and fraud were major topics, as was regulatory scrutiny of CDL holders. The topic that surprised me was autonomous vehicles.
During a Q&A session following the chat, shippers were curious about the current state of autonomous vehicles, how they work and what to expect in the coming years. Most current media attention centers on the heavy-duty Class 8 space, but I was able to share what I’ve learned in the medium-duty and terminal tractor/drayage space. For many of these shippers, who also have their own private fleets, this feeds my assumption that private fleets will be the early adopters of autonomy over for-hire truckload carriers.
Part of the reason is predictability. Large shippers have a better freight crystal ball due to their own demand-planning needs, compared with a for-hire carrier that must wrangle multiple shipper crystal balls and hope each forecast covers its load needs.
The other is labor. The talk about regulatory scrutiny of CDL holders and safety meant that autonomy has the potential to be expedited, as the current administration’s review of non-domiciled CDL holders may cut off a statistically significant pool of new drivers. Limiting drivers and adding higher barriers to entry will cause wages to rise. Higher driver wages will fuel uncertainty and create an opening for driverless trucks, at least in pilot programs in the near term. Autonomous trucks are still too expensive, but rapid updates to generative AI models are allowing them to do more with less, creating the possibility of cost parity in the coming years.
For now, autonomous vehicles are gaining traction and should see more wind in their sails as scrutiny of trucks with human drivers ramps up due to the current political environment.
|
Morgan Stanly sees FMCSA roadside beacon waiver as a turning point in autonomous trucking
|
(Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves)
|
Morgan Stanley recently wrote to investors that it sees a turning point for autonomous trucking following the granting of a roadside safety beacon waiver to Aurora by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
“We believe this is a significant milestone in the path to widespread commercial adoption of autonomous trucking because while the overall regulatory environment for autonomous trucking is quite favorable, small practical rules friction like this have been viewed as significant hurdles by some parties pushing back on its adoption,” wrote Ravi Shanker, a freight transportation analyst with Morgan Stanley.
FreightWaves’ John Gallagher notes that the Aurora waiver granted by the FMCSA is limited to three months but can be renewed. The waiver allows Aurora to use cab-mounted flashing warning beacons instead of having a driver exit the vehicle and place three reflective triangles when stopped on the side of a roadway.
Based on the FMCSA letter, this also opens the door to all other motor carriers, “provided that [the carrier] first notifies FMCSA in writing, certifying that it currently has cab-mounted warning beacons, the ability to comply with all terms and conditions of this waiver, and that it will comply with all terms and conditions of the waiver.”
Despite the win, the approval was narrower in scope than what Aurora originally requested. Gallagher wrote, “In approving the waiver, the Trump administration narrowed the scope of what Aurora had requested, which had been industry-wide regulatory relief for any motor carrier operating Level 4 (i.e., highly automated) trucks without any prior notice to FMCSA.”
|
Harbinger goes to Canada, announces expansion for its EV medium-duty vehicle
|
(Photo: Thomas Wasson/FreightWaves)
|
Medium-duty electric truck maker Harbinger recently announced its electric and hybrid-electric vehicles are now available for purchase in Canada. Orders can be placed through its Canadian dealer, Safetek Specialty Vehicles, which is focused on expanding its Canadian dealer network.
Harbinger uses a proprietary platform for its electric vehicle chassis, which can be configured for walk-in vans, box trucks, recreational vehicles, delivery vans, and emergency and disaster response vehicles, among others.
The first Harbinger vehicles in Canada will be electric step vans, but the company notes more variants are planned. EV step vans are considered the fastest-growing segment in the Canadian EV market. It is estimated that Canada has a $15.8 billion market valuation as of 2024. By 2030, that market value is projected to triple to $40.8 billion, according to Grand View Research.
Compared to the U.S. market, where recent rulemaking and regulatory rollbacks have impacted demand, Canada’s federal EV policies are more aggressive. Current Canadian federal EV policies include a mandate for zero-emission vehicles to make up 35% of total new medium- and heavy-duty vehicle sales by 2030 and 100% by 2040, according to Canada’s Action Plan for Clean On-Road Transportation.
Market penetration also exists. Harbinger’s release notes that Quebec leads the Canadian market in EV adoption, with 36.7% of new vehicle registrations in 2022. Incentives exist as well. The release notes: “Canada has instituted the federal iMHZEV incentive program, which offers $75,000 in incentives per Class 4 and 5 vehicle, and $100,000 for Class 6. The program also offers 50% funding for hybrid range-extended vehicles. Additionally, British Columbia and Quebec provide substantial additional provincial funding programs.”
|
|
|
The California Air Resources Board (CARB) will reopen its Innovative Small e-Fleet (ISEF) set-aside program. The ISEF is part of the Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project (HVIP) and has $30.5 million in available incentives. Clean Trucking’s Jay Traugott writes, “ISEF focuses specifically on small fleets with 20 or fewer vehicles and with less than $15 million in annual revenue. The program’s vouchers can be used toward zero-emission vehicle rentals, leases, truck-sharing, and other unspecified ‘flexible agreements.’”
A recent report by online publication Rest of World notes that EVs are depreciating at a much faster rate than gas-powered cars. Examples given were the collapse of India’s all-electric ride-hailing service BluSmart in April amid allegations of fraud. Ananya Bhattacharya writes, “The Delhi-based company’s fleet of thousands of cars, originally worth over $12,000 each, suddenly flooded the market at about $3,000.” Bhattacharya adds that one U.K. study found 3-year-old EVs lost over half their value versus 39% for gas cars. Another study from South Korea found that U.S. EVs lost nearly 60% of their value over three to five years compared to traditional vehicles, which lost around 50%.
The San Pedro Bay Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are unlikely to meet their 2035 deadline for a 100% zero-emission drayage truck fleet, according to the 2024 Drayage Trucks Feasibility Assessment. FreightWaves’ Stuart Chirls notes that the report, part of the ports’ Clean Air Action Plan, cites maturing battery-electric and fuel-cell technologies but highlights steep economic barriers: zero-emission trucks cost two to five times more than diesel models. Infrastructure lags, too, with current charging supporting just 800 vehicles versus the 17,000 needed, plus scant hydrogen stations.
|
As always, thanks for watching and reading.
Thomas Wasson
twasson@firecrown.com
|
|
|
|
