ATRI report examines evolving truck driver demographics

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ATRI report examines evolving truck driver demographics

(Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves)

A new report from the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI), released Tuesday, looks at two decades of changes in truck driver demographics to identify untapped recruitment pathways, as fleets grapple with turnover and hiring hurdles. The report, titled "Evolving Truck Driver Demographics: Issues and Opportunities," pulls data from government sources, historical surveys and a fresh 2024 ATRI poll of 1,242 drivers.

Key findings show an aging workforce, with the average driver age rising from 42 in 1995 to 47 in 2024, driven by baby boomer retirements and fewer young entrants. ATRI notes opportunities to attract millennials and Gen Z through youth training programs and by recruiting from other transportation roles. Barriers to both generations include declining teen licensing rates that may deter CDL applicants.

Gender disparities remain. While women make up 47.1% of the total labor force, they comprise just 8% of truck drivers in 2024, up from 4% in 1995 but stagnant in recent years. Of female CDL holders, just 37% possess a Class A CDL, required for over-the-road trucking.

The report recommends targeting women in non-driving trucking jobs or those holding Class B and C licenses, alongside family-friendly policies to support later-life entrants and those with dependents.

Racial diversity has improved since 2014. People of color now constitute 37% of drivers versus 28% of the broader workforce, though white drivers still dominate at 63%. Breaking down the details, white drivers fell 14 percentage points from 77% in 2014 to 63% in 2023. Black, Hispanic and Asian drivers saw growth. Black drivers rose from 15% to 23%, Hispanic drivers grew from 19% to 23%, and Asian drivers rose from 2% to 4%.

Employment classifications show a surge in owner-operators and independent contractors, growing 67% since 2003 to over 500,000 — a potential headwind exacerbating for-hire fleet shortages.

ATRI suggests adjusting recruitment based on these trends, including boosting women in independent roles. Education levels among drivers lag the general labor force, with only 6% holding bachelor’s degrees, but rising credentials signal potential for targeted upskilling.

Looking ahead, the report explores underrepresented pathways, including former foster youth and justice-involved individuals. Foster alumni, numbering 437,000 annually aging out, often lack support but find trucking’s independence appealing. ATRI recommends job fairs, mentorship and scholarships. For justice-involved people — 70 million with records — a survey of 112 carriers shows 75% hire those with misdemeanors after five years, but violent felonies remain barriers.

Opportunities include pre-release CDL training, second-chance policies and tax credits like the Work Opportunity Tax Credit to reduce recidivism and fill gaps. Overall, ATRI emphasizes that demographic insights can help adjust driver recruitment strategies to lower turnover (averaging 94% in long-haul).

June preliminary net trailer orders surge

ACT Research recently released its June preliminary net trailer orders which showed an increase of 8,800 units from May to June. The 133% month-over-month increase was paired with a 144% higher order intake at 15,400 units compared to June 2024.

“Lower June net order intake was expected, as it is one of the weaker order months of the annual cycle, so June data surprised to the upside. That said, OEMs have been sharing for the past several months that amid the lower order placements, they have seen a flurry of quotation activity,” said Jennifer McNealy, director CV market research & publications at ACT Research in the release.

McNealy speculated that the demand spike may be a pull-forward in advance of anticipated price increases. White the news is good in the near-term, there remains concern that weak for-hire carrier profitability remains an ongoing headwind to stronger demand.

Freight market recovery remains elusive according to June Cass Freight Index

A sustained recovery from the Great Freight Recession remains elusive, according to recent data released by Cass Information Systems. Freight expenditures in the U.S. rose 2.6% year over year in June, marking the third consecutive annual increase after more than two years of declines, according to the latest Cass Freight Index report released Thursday.

The uptick follows a 0.8% year-over-year gain in May, but expenditures dipped 1.2% month over month in June, according to the data. The increase was driven entirely by higher rates, as shipments fell 2.4% year over year. Inferred freight rates climbed 5.2% annually, attributed partly to a shift in modal mix toward more truckloads and fewer less-than-truckload shipments.

"This year-over-year increase was more than explained by higher rates," wrote Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at ACT Research, in the release. Denoyer noted recent trends in modal composition; however, he cautioned that the rise may not signal a sustained recovery. "It is currently more likely a head fake related to pre-tariff shipping," Denoyer added, due to ongoing trade tensions.

After a 7% decline in 2024, freight rates are on track to rise this year, the report said. Seasonal patterns suggest acceleration in July, though a reversion in mix could temper gains. Market rates show no signs of quickening, according to the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index.

Uncertainty also looms because tariff rates are the highest since the 1930s. Effects may be limited because 75% to 80% of freight is already made and consumed domestically. "The effects . . . are very uncertain," Denoyer warned, adding, "but the impacts on international trade have been and will continue to be significant."

SONAR spotlight: Spot market linehaul rates get seasonal boost, then a seasonal retreat

(Source: SONAR)

Summary: The spot market linehaul seasonal rally gave way to a seasonal rout as dry van spot market capacity left, then reentered the market. The SONAR National Truckload Index Linehaul Only (NTIL) measures spot market rates with an estimated fuel surcharge removed. Fuel costs are based on the average retail price of diesel fuel and fuel efficiency of 6.5 miles per gallon. The formula is NTID – (DTS.USA/6.5).

During the past week, the NTIL fell 4 cents per mile from $1.82 on July 7 to $1.78. Despite the decline, NTIL is in a better position compared to the past two years. In 2024 the NTIL was 2 cents per mile lower at $1.76 per mile, while in 2023 that number was 11 centers per mile lower at $1.67.

Looking ahead, expect continued declines in spot market linehaul rates as the dry van segment enters a period I refer to as “The Summer Doldrums.” Using a 2 year seasonally adjusted moving averages, linehaul rates are forecasted to fall another 6 cents per mile over the next seven days to $1.72. Further out, the NTIL is predicted to fall to $1.66 by the last week of September before rallying for peak season, starting in November. The next time linehaul rates are expected to see their Fourth of July highs is during the last week of December, where the NTIL will peak at $1.85 per mile on the last day of 2025.

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Routing Guide: Links from around the web

FreightWaves launches FreightTech 2026 awards (FreightWaves)

Traffic fatalities continue downward trend: NHTSA (Commercial Carrier Journal)

Werner loses again on issue of deaf driver, but dollar amounts are a lot lower (FreightWaves)

A smaller Marten turns in a second quarter of 2025 much like a year earlier (FreightWaves)

FMCSA nominee details safety, enforcement plans (FreightWaves)

J.B. Hunt still waiting for market to turn (FreightWaves)

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