THE DAILY

Thursday, April 23, 2026

The five minutes that make you the most informed person in freight today

The Daily

Knight-Swift targets double-digit rate hikes as truckload capacity tightens

The country’s largest truckload carrier just told the market that bid season has turned. Knight-Swift now expects high-single- to low-double-digit rate increases this cycle, a material step up from the low-to-mid-single-digit target it carried into the year.

The first quarter was messy. Knight-Swift (NYSE: KNX) posted a net loss of $1.3 million and adjusted earnings of 9 cents per share, in line with last week’s negative preannouncement and well below the 25-cent consensus at the time. The underlying items were transitory: 8 cents of adverse claims development in the LTL unit, 5 to 6 cents from weather and fuel, and 2 cents from an adverse value-added tax ruling in Mexico. Consolidated revenue climbed 1% to $1.85 billion.

The market story is what matters. CEO Adam Miller said truckload capacity keeps exiting, pushed out by heightened regulatory enforcement and a fresh fuel spike squeezing marginal carriers’ cash flow. "The first quarter had its challenges, but these were largely transitory and even bring some upside as the weather disruption exposed market tightness that has served to accelerate the pricing environment, and the spike in fuel prices adds one more headwind to truckload capacity," Miller said in the earnings release. "While the pricing environment is improving, we are still seeing carrier failures, as the damage done over a prolonged downcycle is not quickly recovered, especially with the cash flow crunch brought on by the recent fuel spike."

TL average tractors in service fell 4% year over year, offset by a 4% increase in revenue per tractor excluding fuel. Loaded miles per tractor climbed 2.3% and revenue per loaded mile rose 1.6%. Asset utilization is rising while the fleet shrinks. The TL adjusted operating ratio landed at 96.3%. Knight-Swift reiterated second-quarter adjusted EPS guidance of 45 to 49 cents, bracketing consensus and implying the quarter is already recovering on both volume and price.

So What? Shippers carrying 2025 contract pricing into this bid cycle are about to meet a different market. Knight-Swift’s jump from mid-single-digit to low-double-digit pricing targets is the clearest public read on where the band is heading. Carriers need to hold firm on bids, brokers should recut spot floors before margin compression hits, and anyone still waiting on capacity to return should note this is a cash-crunch exit, not a sidelined fleet.

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Top Stories

CSX operating ratio improves 5.6 points as volume and revenue climb

CSX (NASDAQ: CSX) reported first-quarter operating income of $1.2 billion, up 20%, on revenue of $3.48 billion, up 2%, and EPS of 43 cents, up 26%. Operating ratio hit 64%, a 5.6-point improvement. Intermodal volume rose 6%, driven by domestic shipments and short-haul international moves to inland port terminals. CEO Steve Angel raised the full-year revenue outlook to mid-single-digit growth, citing higher energy prices. Chief Commercial Officer Maryclare Kenney said "shippers are looking more to rail conversion as they weigh the impacts of higher fuel and trucking costs." The Howard Street Tunnel clearance project wraps next week, shaving a day off east-west transit between Chicago and Baltimore.

So What? Intermodal conversion at the margin is a truckload story as much as a rail story. If CSX is pulling domestic freight off highways as diesel climbs and TL capacity tightens, every 2026 pricing model needs a demand-side offset modeled in.

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USMCA review to test Chinese manufacturing footprint in Mexico

With the 2026 USMCA review approaching, Chinese foreign direct investment in Mexico is reshaping North American supply chains and raising new compliance questions. The Nearshore Co. co-CEO Jorge Gonzalez Henrichsen told FreightWaves the "backdoor" narrative is accurate but oversimplified: Chinese suppliers cut off from U.S. buyers are reemerging as Mexican entities to qualify for USMCA treatment. Mexico drew about $2.3 billion in net Chinese foreign direct investment from 2017 to 2024 by official counts, though private estimates run several times higher. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer’s talks with Mexican officials are focused on tighter rules of origin and economic security measures.

So What? Shippers sourcing from Mexican facilities with Chinese ownership ties should run the rules-of-origin math now. If the review tightens content thresholds, the nearshoring cost advantage could evaporate overnight for anything with significant Chinese inputs.

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Tesla Semi volume production set to begin this year

Elon Musk told analysts on Tesla’s first-quarter call that the Class 8 Semi will begin volume production later this year, with output ramping slowly before accelerating into 2027. Tesla’s Nevada facility is being prepared for Semi production while the company expands battery, cathode and lithium supply chains that executives flagged as critical constraints. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) posted Q1 revenue of $22.4 billion, up 16%, with operating income of $941 million and free cash flow of $1.4 billion. Musk framed the ramp as a typical "S-curve," with supply chain complexity limiting early output.

So What? Commercial freight electrification gets a capacity test this year that has slipped for three. Fleet operators should look at actual delivery slots, not announcements. The S-curve language means most Semis won’t land until 2027, so plan route electrification against that timeline.

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PlusAI terminates SPAC merger with Churchill Capital IX

PlusAI and Churchill Capital Corp. IX announced Tuesday the termination of their previously announced SPAC-backed business combination, citing market conditions. CEO David Liu said the autonomous trucking company still has "significant momentum" with expected 2026 revenue and continued growth in 2027 as SuperDrive 6.0 scales in commercial operations. Existing investors including Sequoia Capital China, FountainVest, Amazon and Mayfield continue to back the company’s commercialization plans. PlusAI runs an autonomous trucking trial in Texas with International and Ryder.

So What? PlusAI pulling its SPAC says public-market autonomous trucking valuations are not where founders want to price today. Private capital is filling the gap, but if Einride’s planned listing doesn’t trade well, the funding window for AV truck players could tighten further in the back half of 2026.

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From the Research Desk

What We’re Watching

▸ Knight-Swift’s shift from mid-single-digit to low-double-digit targets is the pricing anchor for every other carrier’s bid desk. Watch how J.B. Hunt, Werner and Schneider frame their own rate guidance on upcoming calls.

▸ CSX opens Chicago-Baltimore double-stack service next week and is guiding full-year revenue higher on fuel-related pricing. If rail starts pulling domestic freight off highways through Q2, every TL demand model needs an offset.

▸ Existing investors have signaled backing for the next round. Terms and sizing will tell the market whether autonomous trucking valuations are holding or resetting lower for the rest of 2026.

That’s your Daily for today. See you tomorrow.

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