THE DAILY

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

The five minutes that make you the most informed person in freight today

The Daily

Uber Freight says ‘phantom capacity’ is tightening the U.S.-Mexico trucking market

The cross-border trucking market is tightening, and headline data is missing it. Demand looks steady. Spot rates and tender rejections look loose. Underneath, usable, compliant capacity is shrinking fast, and the carriers who can actually move freight reliably are getting harder to find.

Zeid Houssami, the senior vice president overseeing Uber Freight’s cross-border business, told FreightWaves the U.S.-Mexico market entered Q1 2026 in a “supply-driven” phase. “We’ve basically seen in Q1 … a tightening in supply,” Houssami said. The constraint isn’t a demand surge. Security protocols, compliance requirements and carrier vetting are constricting the pool of trucks that can legally and safely move freight on the lanes shippers actually need.

SONAR’s Outbound Tender Volume Index for Mexico shows volumes holding firm to slightly elevated through April, even as broader U.S. freight metrics paint a softer picture. Tender acceptance, though, is moving the other way. The gap between OTVI and acceptance is the “phantom capacity” signal: freight is on the board, but the right truck to cover it, a truck that is vetted, compliant, and security-cleared, isn’t available. Northbound demand runs two-to-three times southbound, Houssami said, which forces carriers to deadhead equipment back into Mexico and tightens U.S.-bound coverage further.

“There’s not really a driver shortage — it’s more so it’s a compliant driver shortage,” Houssami said. Shippers are responding by running mini-bids, diversifying carrier networks and shifting away from heavy reliance on annual contracts toward hybrid spot-and-contract strategies. The wildcard sits in July: the USMCA review. Houssami said nearshoring investment has slowed as shippers wait to see whether the trade pact is extended or renegotiated, and any prolonged uncertainty will inject more volatility into already-thin cross-border capacity.

So What? If you ship into or out of Mexico, the loose-market read on national tender rejections is misleading on your lanes. Compliant capacity is the binding constraint, not headline supply. Lock in vetted carrier relationships now, plan for capacity friction through the USMCA review window, and price contracts for the corridor reality, not the national average. The cheap truck on the load board may not exist when you need it.

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Top Stories

Iran conflict pushes Asia-U.S. ocean spot rates up by double digits

Trans-Pacific spot rates are up sharply over the past month as the Middle East conflict cascades through Southeast Asian transshipment hubs. Xeneta data as of April 23 puts Far East-to-U.S. West Coast at $2,857 per FEU and Far East-to-U.S. East Coast at $3,871, up 22% and 19% respectively from a month ago. North Europe-to-U.S. East Coast jumped 46% over the same window despite no direct Middle East exposure, as carriers manage capacity on every fronthaul to keep rates supported. “The crisis is still very much present — it has simply migrated from the regional to the global,” Xeneta’s Peter Sand said.

So What? The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to container shipping and rerouted networks via Jeddah and Indian Ocean ports are stabilizing supply chains, but at a cost. Until safe passage returns, longer transits, congestion at alternative hubs and elevated surcharges will keep U.S.-bound rates above pre-crisis levels.

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Florida man charged in $600,000 produce fraud case

Federal prosecutors charged a 39-year-old Spring Hill, Florida, man with wire fraud after he allegedly impersonated a legitimate business and redirected more than $600,000 in onion and potato shipments to addresses tied to himself. According to court documents, orders were placed by email using an existing company’s name, then delivery details were changed mid-transit and false paperwork was used to make the transactions look authorized. The produce moved before the vendors flagged the discrepancy.

So What? Onions and potatoes move fast and turn over faster, which is why fraudsters target them. The case is a textbook example of fraud blending into normal order-to-delivery flow, where verification at each handoff, especially with new vendors or unfamiliar partners, is the difference between a paid invoice and a stolen load.

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Trump ties steel and aluminum tariff relief to U.S. production shift

A Commerce Department notice published Thursday formalizes a process letting Canadian and Mexican steel and aluminum producers apply for relief from 50% tariffs if they commit to expanding U.S. production capacity. Approval is conditioned on construction timelines, hiring plans and capital investment milestones. The administration is pointing to U.S. Steel’s Gary Tin Mill restart in Indiana and Marubeni-Itochu’s $37 million Osceola, Arkansas, plant as proof points. The United Steelworkers union called the offer “economic coercion,” and the Ontario Chamber of Commerce warned the broader Section 232 expansion is already disrupting Great Lakes supply chains.

So What? In 2025 the U.S. imported $27.2 billion in metals from Canada and $15.7 billion from Mexico. Anyone moving steel, aluminum or downstream metals across the northern or southern border has to model two scenarios for the back half of the year, ahead of the USMCA review, depending on which producers take the deal and which fight it.

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FedEx prepares to reactivate grounded MD-11 fleet in May

FedEx plans to return 28 MD-11 freighters to service by the end of May after installing a new Boeing-designed bearing in the pylon aft bulkhead, the structural component that failed in the November UPS Flight 2976 crash that killed crew members in Louisville. Pilots will go through a three-day refresher course before flying. The FAA still has to approve the maintenance procedure, and FedEx will hold a May 6 town hall in Memphis to walk pilots through the engineering analysis. Wet leases and replacement capacity cost FedEx roughly $175 million during the peak winter months.

So What? FedEx pushed its full MD-11 retirement from 2028 to 2032 to chase widebody and industrial cargo growth. Getting these aircraft back in the schedule cuts the wet-lease bill, restores network flexibility and pulls capacity back into a market where heavy airlift is in short supply, and lets FedEx stay out in front of the FAA on messaging.

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From the Research Desk

What We’re Watching

▸ The USMCA review window in July. Cross-border shippers are already in a holding pattern on nearshoring decisions. If the agreement gets extended, capacity-and-investment plans unfreeze. If it doesn’t, expect another leg of compliance and pricing volatility on Mexico lanes.

▸ FAA sign-off on the MD-11 maintenance procedure. FedEx is targeting end-of-May reactivation, but the procedure still needs regulatory approval. Watch for any update after the May 6 Memphis town hall — that timeline anchors $175 million worth of replacement-capacity cost relief.

▸ Whether Iran’s ceasefire offer holds. Tehran floated a swap of attacks-on-shipping for an end to the U.S. naval blockade and a pause on nuclear talks. Until the Strait of Hormuz reopens to container traffic, Far East-to-U.S. spot rates stay propped up by congestion at alternative hubs and deliberate carrier capacity cuts.

That’s your Daily for today. See you tomorrow.

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