THE DAILY

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

The five minutes that makes you the most informed person in freight today

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The Daily

C.H. Robinson has cut 29% of workforce as automation pushes NAST margins higher

C.H. Robinson just confirmed what the headcount charts already showed: the brokerage is getting leaner on purpose, and the margin numbers are moving in its direction.

The Eden Prairie, Minnesota-based company offered voluntary buyouts to about 160 employees, with roughly 26 accepting packages that included nine months of severance and accelerated stock vesting. "As part of our ongoing focus on continuous improvement, we regularly evaluate our organizational design to ensure it aligns with our long-term strategy," the company said in a statement to FreightWaves, framing the program as part of a "broader transformation." News of the buyouts first surfaced on a freight industry Reddit forum before Robinson confirmed them.

The buyouts are the latest data point in a two-year workforce reduction that has been deliberate and dramatic. Total company headcount fell from approximately 14,990 in Q1 2024 to roughly 12,085 by Q4 2025, a 29% reduction. North American Surface Transportation headcount alone dropped from approximately 6,004 to 4,970 over the same period. The Cass Freight Shipment Index declined year over year for the 13th consecutive quarter in Q4 2025, meaning this margin expansion is happening against a weak freight demand backdrop, not a strong one.

The financial case for the strategy is strengthening. Adjusted NAST operating margin reached 36.4% in Q4 2025, up from 33.3% a year earlier. Robinson targets 40% long-term. Executives describe the model as "Lean AI", combining automation, AI and process redesign so that workflows once requiring significant human involvement now need only limited oversight. The company says it continues to add headcount in customer- and carrier-facing roles; the reductions are concentrated in back-office and supervisory functions that automation has made redundant.

So What? Robinson is building a freight cycle call option into its cost structure. A 29% headcount reduction across 13 consecutive quarters of freight demand decline, while growing adjusted NAST margins 310 basis points, means the operating leverage is waiting for volume recovery to unlock it. Brokers without a comparable automation investment are carrying cost structures Robinson has already outgrown. When rates tighten and volumes recover, the gap between Robinson’s margin profile and its competitors’ will widen, not narrow.

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Top Stories

Hub Group receives Nasdaq deficiency notice amid delay in 2025 financial restatement

Hub Group received a Nasdaq deficiency notice this week for failing to file its full-year 2025 financial results on time. The Downers Grove, Illinois-based intermodal carrier previously disclosed it would restate its first three quarters of 2025 results after uncovering a $77 million understatement of purchased transportation expenses. The company has 60 days to submit a compliance plan to Nasdaq and until Sept. 14 to complete the filing. The notice has no immediate effect on HUBG’s listing or trading. Full-year 2025 revenue declined 7% year over year to approximately $3.7 billion; 2026 guidance is $3.65-$3.95 billion, in line with prior consensus. In a Q1 update, CEO Phil Yeager said intermodal volumes reflect steady demand despite winter storm disruptions, pricing is improving as truckload capacity exits the market, and bid season awards are confirming the trend. "We continue to take actions to drive growth, improve profitability and increase operating cash flows," Yeager said. Shares of HUBG were off 1.3% in after-hours trading Tuesday.

So What? The $77 million restatement is now a nine-month filing overhang. Hub said it’s also reviewing 2023 and 2024 results; any expansion of the restatement scope resets the uncertainty timeline. The Q1 intermodal pricing commentary is the more operationally useful signal: if bid awards are confirming that pricing improves as TL capacity exits, that’s early evidence the intermodal conversion cycle is gaining traction.

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Texas carrier faces federal overtime suit over H-2A misclassification of truck drivers

Two Mexican truck drivers have sued Hart, Texas-based Fabian Morales Trucking LLC in federal court, alleging the company misclassified them as agricultural workers under the H-2A visa program to avoid paying overtime. The drivers, who hauled grain between farms, dairies and feedlots, allege they regularly worked more than 60 hours per week but received only straight hourly pay at the Adverse Effect Wage Rate, not the time-and-a-half required under the Fair Labor Standards Act. The company allegedly employed roughly 35 H-2A truck drivers per year between 2023 and 2025, well above the 10 drivers in federal carrier records. The Department of Labor investigated the same carrier in 2017 and determined H-2A drivers were owed overtime; a 2020 case ended with a $200,000 judgment against the defendants. The lawsuit is filed as a collective action, potentially extending claims to other H-2A drivers from the same period.

So What? Carriers using H-2A visa classifications for commercial trucking operations — not genuine farmwork — carry real FLSA overtime exposure, and the pattern here suggests prior enforcement didn’t function as a deterrent. Any carrier running H-2A drivers on commercial hauls should audit its classification practices before the next DOL inquiry finds them instead.

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FedEx enters same-day local delivery through OneRail partnership

FedEx announced FedEx SameDay Local on Tuesday, connecting retail merchants to OneRail’s network of more than 1,000 delivery providers and 12 million on-demand drivers. Shoppers will be able to choose two-hour or end-of-day delivery at checkout. The service is white-labeled, letting merchants maintain control of their brand and customer relationship. The offering puts FedEx in direct competition with Amazon, Walmart, DoorDash and Instacart in same-day delivery for the first time, and matches UPS, which has offered on-demand local delivery through its Roadie subsidiary and Delivery Solutions platform. "At FedEx, we’re supporting our customers in pushing the boundaries of their value proposition around speed and convenience," said Jason Brenner, senior vice president of digital portfolio at FedEx. Parcel consultant Nate Skiver noted that FedEx needs to be competitive on price for large retail accounts to actually make the switch — the economics of last-mile delivery at local scale have historically worked against traditional parcel carriers.

So What? FedEx is using a platform model to capture same-day volume without owning the cost of a proprietary courier fleet. For retailers weighing Amazon’s fulfillment ecosystem against independent options, this is a credible, brand-consistent alternative. Price competitiveness is the variable; FedEx’s ability to undercut Amazon at the last mile is still unproven in the market.

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Ambient IoT takes aim at cargo theft as supply chain losses reach $725 million

Cargo theft is getting more organized and more expensive. Verisk CargoNet recorded 3,594 supply chain crime events in the U.S. and Canada in 2025. Confirmed theft incidents rose 18% year over year, and average theft value jumped 36% to $273,990, driven by organized criminal groups targeting higher-value freight. Food and beverage was the most targeted category with 708 thefts, a 47% increase from 2024. Metals theft rose 77%. Ambient IoT startup Wiliot is pitching battery-free Bluetooth sensor tags, embedded at the pallet or item level, as a way to detect theft and diversion before freight leaves a facility. "Instant," said Amir Khoshniyati, vice president at Wiliot. "Wrong truck, wrong location — pull it off the dock and place it in the right location." The platform tracks location, temperature, humidity and other conditions at the item level, with the data available to shippers, 3PLs and insurers in real time.

So What? Traditional GPS tracking at the trailer level leaves coverage gaps the moment freight is transferred. Item-level visibility closes those gaps — and the data trail it creates reduces carrier-shipper disputes and gives insurers the documentation they need to underwrite with confidence. With supply chain losses already at $725 million, the cost-benefit math for ambient IoT is no longer speculative.

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From the Research Desk

What We’re Watching

▸ C.H. Robinson Q1 2026 results. The "Lean AI" margin thesis is well-established in the data. The Q1 print is the first test of whether NAST margins continue their climb in a recovering freight market. If the 40% target comes into view ahead of schedule, the automation investment story compounds — and competitors without comparable technology face a structural cost disadvantage they can’t close quickly.

▸ Hub Group’s accounting review scope. Hub said it’s reviewing 2023 and 2024 results for potential restatement impact. Any expansion beyond the $77 million in 2025 restatements resets the filing timeline and investor uncertainty. The first checkpoint is Nasdaq’s compliance plan deadline of May 18.

▸ FedEx SameDay Local launch and pricing. The OneRail partnership is announced; the execution question is cost. Price competitiveness against Amazon’s same-day infrastructure is what determines whether large retail accounts actually move volume. Watch FedEx’s next earnings call for early customer adoption signals and any commentary on margin structure for the new service.

That’s your Daily for today. See you tomorrow.

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