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THE DAILY
Friday, May 15, 2026
The five minutes that makes you the most informed person in freight today
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Newsletter Brought to You By — Amazon Supply Chain Services
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The Daily
Supreme Court broker ruling arrives and the big 3PLs may be winners
The Supreme Court’s unanimous ruling in Montgomery v. Caribe II didn’t just expose freight brokers to state tort liability; it started rewriting the competitive landscape of brokerage in real time.
Wall Street moved before the ink dried. Broader indices closed higher Thursday, but brokerage-specific stocks ran the other direction. RXO (NYSE: RXO) fell 8.83% to $18.07. C.H. Robinson (NASDAQ: CHRW) slid 1.92% to $160.12. Landstar (NASDAQ: LSTR) dropped 1.72% to $171.98. Truckload carriers with brokerage units moved the opposite way: J.B. Hunt rose 6.42%, Schneider National jumped 11.07%, and Knight-Swift gained 3.38%.
The ruling strips brokers of the Federal Aviation Administration Authorization Act preemption they have long used to block state negligent selection lawsuits. Justices Samuel Alito and Brett Kavanaugh offered narrow comfort in a concurring opinion: brokers "should be able to successfully defend against state tort suits if the brokers have acted reasonably and arranged transportation with reputable trucking companies." That defense, however, requires documentation, continuous monitoring systems, and legal resources that not every brokerage has in place.
Deutsche Bank analyst Richa Harnain estimated that 20% of the total trucking industry faces potential financial consequences, derived from roughly 60% of the brokerage sector carrying elevated exposure. For large incumbents, the math runs the other way. "That should therefore create more share gain opportunities for the larger, more insulated players," the bank’s report said. Deutsche Bank called the Robinson selloff "knee-jerk," pointing to 40% EBIT net margins in its truck brokerage arm as insulation against incremental insurance cost. RXO was direct: "This ruling will accelerate industry consolidation, reinforcing the long-term competitive advantage of scaled players like RXO."
The Transportation Intermediaries Association called Montgomery "an impossible task," arguing it requires brokers to evaluate carrier safety beyond what federal licensing already covers. TIA is now working with members on next steps.
So What? Small and mid-size brokerages relying on FMCSA authority checks as their primary vetting process are carrying litigation exposure they didn’t have 48 hours ago; the insurance market will price that in fast. Larger players with documented vetting programs and the legal resources to defend negligent selection claims are structurally better positioned, and Thursday’s stock moves confirmed it. If you run a brokerage without a formal carrier vetting protocol, that gap needs to close before your next insurance renewal. If you’re a shipper selecting partners, financial stability and compliance infrastructure just became criteria in a way they weren’t before.
Read the full story →
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Top Stories
J.B. Hunt projects 20% TL rate gain over the next two years
J.B. Hunt sees truckload rates climbing 20% over the next two years, and the recovery is running almost entirely on supply-side discipline, not demand. At the Bank of America industrials conference Tuesday, President of Dedicated Contract Services Brad Hicks put it plainly: "Steady as she goes, rates are going up." Regulatory enforcement continues removing marginal carriers, driver wages are stepping higher in markets including Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and bid activity is already picking up outside the normal annual cycle as shippers move to lock down capacity. Intermodal currently runs at a 20-25% discount to TL, a gap J.B. Hunt expects to close as modal conversion accelerates before the next bid season.
So What? J.B. Hunt’s 20% two-year stacked call includes a double-digit run rate by year-end. Shippers still pricing off 2024 benchmarks are going to feel this before they see it coming. The intermodal discount won’t survive the next full bid cycle. Modal conversion conversations need to happen now, not after double-digit rate notices arrive.
Read the full story →
Roadcheck OOS rate is running nearly double 2025 levels after two days
Two days into the 2026 International Roadcheck, FMCSA inspection records show 6,406 total inspections, 11,010 violations, and 2,055 out-of-service orders, representing an OOS rate running nearly double the 18.1% recorded across the full 2025 event. Pennsylvania led all enforcement, accounting for 1,156 of the cumulative inspections through Day 2 alone, nearly 20% of all national volume. The worst per-truck outcomes were driven by brake, tire, and lighting failures, not cargo securement, with several stops logging 27 or more violations. Western Express posted the worst overall compliance profile among high-volume carriers: 36 violations across 19 inspections at a 21% OOS rate.
So What? Roadcheck violations feed directly into CSA BASIC scores in the next reporting cycle — carriers that ran high OOS rates this week will see broker load board visibility narrow within weeks. Day 3 wraps tonight. If your pre-trip wasn’t complete before you left the yard this morning, finish it before you roll.
Read the full story →
The broker standard of care after Montgomery is already being set by operators doing the work
Cassandra Gaines, founder and CEO of Carrier Assure, argues in a FreightWaves contributed piece that the post-Montgomery standard of care isn’t waiting to be defined by courts because it’s already being written by brokers implementing continuous monitoring platforms, carrier onboarding teams, insurance verification tools, and formal escalation procedures. The gap is a small segment still operating on an outdated model: active FMCSA authority plus insurance equals a movable load. "That approach is out of date and difficult to defend," Gaines writes. As a nationally recognized expert witness in negligent selection litigation, she has seen how juries respond to carrier files that show publicly available warning signs were never reviewed.
So What? The broker standard of care is now measured against what the industry’s most sophisticated operators already do, not the minimum regulatory floor. Documented vetting, continuous monitoring, and defensible decision-making are the new benchmark. Brokers whose practices lag the industry will eventually defend obsolete processes against plaintiffs who know exactly what the standard has become.
Read the full story →
Sponsored By SONAR
State of Freight: From Roadcheck Week to Summer 2026 Outlook
Craig Fuller and Zach Strickland go live May 21 at 2 p.m. ET to break down what Roadcheck enforcement data means for capacity and rates, the latest geopolitical signals and their downstream effects on global supply chains, and what the SONAR data says about where freight markets head through Q3. If you’re planning capacity, managing costs, or trying to read the back half of 2026, this is the session to attend.
Register now → |
Cargo theft has a new method: the threat is already inside the cab
Scott Cornell, Chief Risk Officer at SPG Cargo & Logistics, described the Trojan Driver scam on the Fraud Watch podcast: organized theft groups are embedding insiders directly into legitimate carrier hiring processes, turning the driver seat itself into the attack vector. Unlike fake carrier schemes, the method is deliberately slow, involving infiltrating hiring, establishing trust, and waiting for the right high-value load assignment. Cornell doesn’t expect it to become the industry’s dominant theft method quickly, but once surfaced at industry conferences, similar cases emerged across carriers and freight types. The structural problem it exposes is real: a broker can clear every vetting check and still dispatch a compromised driver to a high-value load.
So What? The Trojan Driver exploits the gap between carrier vetting and driver hiring, which are separate responsibilities in a system that organized theft groups are now specifically designed to navigate. Shared standards and shared information across shippers, brokers, and carriers are the only structural fix for a threat built to move between organizational silos.
Read the full story →
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Presented by Amazon Supply Chain Services
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Solutions that save: How Amazon’s Supply Chain Services give back time, money, and peace of mind
Managing a supply chain shouldn’t mean choosing between cost, speed, and peace of mind — but for many businesses, it does. Amazon Supply Chain Services offers flexible, resilient logistics support that eliminates those tradeoffs, helping businesses of every size reduce complexity, cut costs, and reclaim time. With access to Amazon’s global infrastructure and no lock-in required, ASCS gives you the freedom to build the supply chain that works for your business.
Read more → |
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From the Research Desk
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In Partnership with Trimble
As TL rates climb and the spot market becomes a deliberate capacity strategy rather than a fallback, this FreightWaves/Trimble report breaks down how shippers, carriers, and brokers are blending contracted freight with spot-market agility — and where the biggest strategic gaps remain.
Download the full report → |
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In Partnership with Avalara
In a tariff environment that keeps shifting, this FreightWaves/Avalara white paper examines how supply chain professionals are building adaptive strategies to absorb external shocks — and which tools are actually moving the needle on resilience and flexibility.
Download the full report → |
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From Our Partners
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Courtesy of Amazon Supply Chain Services
ASCS gives businesses flexible, resilient logistics support — lower overhead through consolidated providers, fast delivery to reduce returns and product damage, and AI-powered forecasting to manage inventory across new sales channels. No lock-in required.
Learn more → |
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Courtesy of Werner
Werner is scaling cross-border intermodal into Mexico with owned containers, C-TPAT protocols, and 27 years of operational expertise. With record FDI flowing into Mexican manufacturing, the carrier is positioning its fleet — 400 owned containers today, targeting 800 by year-end — to absorb demand that TL capacity alone cannot handle.
Learn more → |
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Upcoming Event
Freight Fraud Symposium
May 20, 2026 • Rock & Roll Hall of Fame • Cleveland, OH
The industry’s leaders are converging at the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame for one reason: to build a bulletproof supply chain. An intimate, high-stakes gathering designed to discuss the issues and tackle the escalating fraud crisis head-on.
Register Now → |
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What We’re Watching
▸ Montgomery’s next move. TIA has signaled it’s working with members on "potential next steps" — watch for federal preemption legislation and whether insurers begin repricing brokerage liability coverage ahead of Q3 renewals.
▸ J.B. Hunt’s rate call in the data. The company projects double-digit TL rate growth by year-end. OTRI through May and June is the tell — if rejection rates track the supply-side trend J.B. Hunt is describing, the 20% two-year forecast will look conservative fast.
▸ Roadcheck CSA fallout. Day 3 wrapped tonight. Violations from this week post to CSA BASIC scores in the next reporting cycle — carriers that ran high OOS rates will see load board visibility narrow within weeks.
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That’s your Daily for today. See you Monday.
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