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Top Stories
LTL rates on track for record Q2 as fuel prices and yield discipline converge
The TD Cowen-AFS Freight Index put LTL rate-per-pound at 66.9% above its January 2018 baseline in the first quarter — 300 basis points higher year over year — and the Q2 forecast of 68.4% above baseline (up 520 bps y/y) would mark a new all-time high and 10 straight y/y increases. Truckload rate-per-mile hit a 13-quarter high at 9% above the 2018 baseline. Weight per shipment rose 3.8% from Q4, the first sequential gain in two years, as the industrial complex shows early signs of exiting a three-year downturn. "For quarter after quarter, LTL pricing stability seemed to hinge on carriers resisting the temptation to ‘buy’ volumes with pricing concessions," said Mich Fabriga, vice president of LTL pricing at AFS Logistics. "Now fuel prices are primed to make a lasting impact and we’re finally seeing some signs of recovering demand."
So What? LTL earnings season starts Apr. 28 with ArcBest. Watch carrier commentary on fuel surcharge flow-through and yield management — if the 520-bps y/y Q2 forecast holds, shippers on legacy LTL contracts are about to get repriced hard. J.B. Hunt reports after the close today; that’s the first major TL data point of the cycle.
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Small trucking companies file string of bankruptcy petitions across the U.S.
A wave of small and mid-size carrier bankruptcy filings hit courts in recent weeks — Liberty Carriers, NAS Logistics, NV Freight, Star One Transport, PSS Trucking, and Golden Spirit Freight, spanning jurisdictions from California and Texas to Illinois and Florida. Fleet sizes range from single-truck operators to mid-size regional carriers. NV Freight, a 52-truck Chicago-area operation, disclosed up to $10 million in liabilities in its Chapter 11 filing. NAS Logistics, a 27-truck Texas carrier that logged more than 2.6 million miles in 2024, filed with similar liability exposure. Golden Spirit Freight filed for Chapter 7 liquidation — a hard shutdown, not a restructuring.
So What? Chapter 7 filers don’t come back. Each liquidation permanently removes trucks and drivers from the available pool, compounding the supply-side tightening that new CDL rules are already driving. The capacity math is getting tighter from two directions simultaneously.
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3PLs see 40-to-1 spread in marketing return as freight cycle turns
LeadCoverage’s Supply Chain Growth Index for Q4 2025 shows freight brokers and 3PLs splitting into two distinct camps on go-to-market efficiency. The index’s core metric — pipeline generated per dollar of marketing and sales spend — had a median of $4.84 in Q4, but the range exploded to $0.36–$204.30, with top performers generating roughly 40 times the pipeline per dollar compared to the bottom quartile. High performers share common traits: intent data adoption, sustained account-based marketing, programmatic paid media, and tight sales-marketing alignment. "The ones who are crushing it are pulling away from the pack," said LeadCoverage CEO Kara Brown. LeadCoverage’s analysis is based on anonymized data from approximately 30 clients across the logistics and supply chain sector.
So What? With the freight cycle turning and shippers actively looking for new partners, 2026 is the best customer-acquisition window 3PLs have had since COVID. The data says efficient, data-driven GTM programs will determine who captures that volume — cold-call campaigns aren’t closing the gap against leaders running at $200 in pipeline per dollar spent.
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DOE benchmark diesel price posts first weekly decline in 13 weeks
The DOE/EIA benchmark diesel price — the basis for most carrier fuel surcharges — fell for the first time Monday after 12 straight weekly increases. The latest reading put the price at $5.608 per gallon; during the prior 12-week run the price had risen $2.184 per gallon total. CME ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures moved faster, settling Tuesday at $3.6243 per gallon, down nearly 21 cents on the day (5.47%) and roughly 85 cents below where they settled a week earlier. The IEA’s monthly report, published the same day, offered a structural warning: March global crude output fell 10.1 million barrels per day from February — what the IEA called "the largest disruption in history." The agency projects a global call on inventories of 6 million barrels per day — a situation it described as "untenable."
So What? Futures have dropped and the retail benchmark will follow — but don’t price fuel assumptions off this week’s move. The IEA’s math says the Persian Gulf supply disruption removed 360 million barrels in March and projects 440 million in April. Short-term relief is real; the structural problem in global crude supply has not resolved.
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